It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

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We assembled mitogenomes from 21 ant workers assigned to four morphospecies (E. ruidum spp. 1-4) and putative hybrids of the Ectatomma ruidum complex (E. ruidum spp. 2x3), and to E. tuberculatum using NGS data. Mitogenomes from specimens of E. ruidum spp. 3, 4 and 2 × 3 had a high proportion of polymorphic sites. We investigated whether polymorphisms in mitogenomes are due to nuclear mt paralogues (numts) or due to the presence of more than one mitogenome within an individual (heteroplasmy). We did not find loss of function signals in polymorphic protein-coding genes, and observed strong evidence for purifying selection in two haplotype-phased genes, which indicate the presence of two functional mitochondrial genomes coexisting within individuals instead of numts. Heteroplasmy due to hybrid paternal leakage is not supported by phylogenetic analyses. Our results reveal the presence of a fast-evolving secondary mitochondrial lineage of uncertain origin in the E. ruidum complex.

Nuclear mitochondrial (mt) paralogues (numts) are non‐functional fragments of mtDNA integrated into the nuclear genome that can overestimate the number of species in analyses based on mtDNA sequences. As numts have relatively slow mutation rates, they can pass undetected by conventional procedures such as inspecting for internal stop codons, indels or apparent polymorphism in chromatograms. Species boundaries based on mtDNA markers therefore require a thorough assessment of numts, especially in insects, where this phenomenon appears to be relatively frequent. Ectatomma ruidum is a widely distributed Neotropical ant species that is distributed from northern Mexico to northern Brazil. Previous behavioural and molecular evidence suggests that this species actually represents a composite taxon. Here we assessed the species boundaries in E. ruidum based on two mt (COI, cyt b) and one nuclear (H3) marker, as well as on external morphology. Ancient and recent mt paralogues were detected in several specimens, although pre‐PCR dilution of DNA template helped to recover most of the mt orthologues. Based on the congruence found between our species delineation obtained from the mt genealogies and the discriminated morphospecies, we propose that E. ruidum is actually composed of at least three species. Two of these species have a wide geographical distribution in the Neotropics, whereas the remaining one was restricted to localities situated near the Pacific coast in south‐east Mexico. We also found extensive intra‐ and interspecific variation in the barcoding locus. Moreover, the nuclear evidence suggests the existence of hybrids between two of these species in Oaxaca, south‐east Mexico. This study agrees with previous studies of other closely related animal taxa, which have revealed a complex evolutionary history and overlooked species diversity in the latter region.

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