Aim. To assess the possibilities of using comorbidity indices together with the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) scale to assess the risk of hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Materials and methods. The registry study included 2,305 patients with ACS. The frequency of coronary angiography was 54.0%, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) 26.9%. Hospital mortality with ACS was 4.8%, with myocardial infarction 9.4%. All patients underwent a comorbidity assessment according to the CIRS system (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale), according to the CCI (Charlson Comorbidity Index) and the CDS (Chronic Disease Score) scale, according to their own scale, which is based on the summation of 9 diseases (diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, stroke, arterial hypertension, obesity, peripheral atherosclerosis, thrombocytopenia, anemia, chronic kidney disease). All patients underwent a mortality risk assessment using the GRACE ACS Risk scale. Results. It was found that the CDS and CIRS indices are not associated with the risk of hospital mortality. With CCI3, the frequency of death outcomes increased from 4.1 to 6.1% (2=4.12, p=0.042). With an increase in the severity of comorbidity from minimal (no more than 1 disease) to severe (4 or more diseases) according to its own scale, hospital mortality increased from 1.2 to 7.4% (2=23.8, p0.0001). In contrast to other scales of comorbidity, our own model more efficiently estimates the hospital prognosis both in the conservative treatment group (2=8.0, p=0.018) and in the PCI group (2=28.5, p=0.00001). It was in the PCI subgroup that the comorbidity factors included in their own model made it possible to increase the area under the ROC curve of the GRACE scale from 0.80 (0.740.87) to 0.90 (0.850.95). Conclusion. CCI and its own comorbidity model, but not CDS and CIRS, are associated with the risk of hospital mortality. The model for assessing comorbidity on a 9-point scale, but not CCI, CDS and CIRS, can significantly improve the predictive value of the GRACE scale.
Aim. To identify predictors of ischemic and hemorrhagic events in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) after 18 months of follow-up.Material and Methods. The single-center prospective study included 478 patients with MI. The exclusion criteria were as follows: age < 18 years; MI as a complication of myocardial revascularization; atrial fibrillation; intake of anticoagulants after MI. During inpatient treatment, the risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic events was calculated according to the PRECISE-DAPT score, GRACE hospital discharge risk score, CRUSADE bleeding score. After 18 months, we evaluated the rate of ischemic (cardiovascular death, unstable angina, life-threatening arrhythmia, non-fatal MI and stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, elective repeated and/ or emergency revascularization) and haemorrhagic events and the amount of corresponding therapy.Results. At 18 months post-MI, patients were at high risk of developing both ischemic events (cardiovascular death: 32.0%; recurrent MI: 16.3%; repeated myocardial revascularization: 18.5%; unstable angina: 13.8%; stroke: 3.6%) and hemorrhagic events (bleeding rate of 39.7% according to the TIMI score), most of which occurred during the first 12 months post-MI. Double antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) was prescribed to 86.5% patients upon discharge (including a triple antithrombotic therapy in 8.6% patients). Patient adherence to treatment was 66.7% and 60.6% at 6 and 12 months of follow-up, respectively. After 18 months, DAPT was prescribed exclusively to patients suffered from recurrent ischemic events or those who underwent repeated myocardial revascularization (17.4% patients in total). The main reason to cancel DAPT was bleeding, although it was minor in most cases. Predictors of ischemic events (fatal and non-fatal) at 18 months of follow-up were PRECISE- DAPT score (odds ratio (OR) = 1.108, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.054-1.164, р < 0.001), GRACE score (OR = 1.032, 95% CI = 1.016-1.048, р < 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% (OR = 4.256, 95% CI = 1.510-12.001, р = 0.006). Predictors of hemorrhagic events at 18-month follow-up were PRECISE-DAPT score (OR = 1.025, 95% CI = 1.009-1.041, р = 0.002), peripheral artery disease (PAD) (OR = 2.459, 95% CI = 1.365-4.428, р = 0.003), intake of sulfonylurea for diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.523, 95% CI = 1.266-5.028; р = 0.009), unsuccessful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or conservative treatment of MI (OR = 3.792, 95% CI = 1.799-7.996, р < 0.001).Conclusion. Predictors of ischemic events (fatal and non-fatal) in the long-term period after MI include PRECISE-DAPT and GRACE scores, and LVEF below 40%. Predictors of hemorrhagic events at 18-month follow-up were PRECISE- DAPT scores, PAD, taking sulfonylurea for diabetes mellitus, unsuccessful PCI or conservative treatment of MI.
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