The determination of a list of differentially expressed genes is a basic objective in many cDNA microarray experiments. We present a statistical approach that allows direct control over the percentage of false positives in such a list and, under certain reasonable assumptions, improves on existing methods with respect to the percentage of false negatives. The method accommodates a wide variety of experimental designs and can simultaneously assess significant differences between multiple types of biological samples. Two interconnected mixed linear models are central to the method and provide a flexible means to properly account for variability both across and within genes. The mixed model also provides a convenient framework for evaluating the statistical power of any particular experimental design and thus enables a researcher to a priori select an appropriate number of replicates. We also suggest some basic graphics for visualizing lists of significant genes. Analyses of published experiments studying human cancer and yeast cells illustrate the results.

We present primary results from the Sequencing Quality Control (SEQC) project, coordinated by the United States Food and Drug Administration. Examining Illumina HiSeq, Life Technologies SOLiD and Roche 454 platforms at multiple laboratory sites using reference RNA samples with built-in controls, we assess RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) performance for junction discovery and differential expression profiling and compare it to microarray and quantitative PCR (qPCR) data using complementary metrics. At all sequencing depths, we discover unannotated exon-exon junctions, with >80% validated by qPCR. We find that measurements of relative expression are accurate and reproducible across sites and platforms if specific filters are used. In contrast, RNA-seq and microarrays do not provide accurate absolute measurements, and gene-specific biases are observed, for these and qPCR. Measurement performance depends on the platform and data analysis pipeline, and variation is large for transcript-level profiling. The complete SEQC data sets, comprising >100 billion reads (10Tb), provide unique resources for evaluating RNA-seq analyses for clinical and regulatory settings.

Here we present a statistically rigorous approach to quantifying microarray expression data that allows the relative effects of multiple classes of treatment to be compared and incorporates analytical methods that are common to quantitative genetics. From the magnitude of gene effects and contributions of variance components, we find that gene expression in adult flies is affected most strongly by sex, less so by genotype and only weakly by age (for 1- and 6-wk flies); in addition, sex x genotype interactions may be present for as much as 10% of the Drosophila transcriptome. This interpretation is compromised to some extent by statistical issues relating to power and experimental design. Nevertheless, we show that changes in expression as small as 1.2-fold can be highly significant. Genotypic contributions to transcriptional variance may be of a similar magnitude to those relating to some quantitative phenotypes and should be considered when assessing the significance of experimental treatments.

SUMMARY Statisticians most often use the linear mixed model to analyze Gaussian longitudinal data. The value and familiarity of the R2 statistic in the linear univariate model naturally creates great interest in extending it to the linear mixed model. We define and describe how to compute a model R2 statistic for the linear mixed model by using only a single model. The proposed R2 statistic measures multivariate association between the repeated outcomes and the fixed effects in the linear mixed model. The R2 statistic arises as a 1–1 function of an appropriate F statistic for testing all fixed effects (except typically the intercept) in a full model. The statistic compares the full model to a null model with all fixed effects deleted (except typically the intercept) while retaining exactly the same covariance structure. Furthermore, the R2 statistic leads immediately to a natural definition of a partial R2 statistic. A mixed model in which ethnicity gives a very small p-value as a longitudinal predictor of blood pressure compellingly illustrates the value of the statistic. In sharp contrast to the extreme p-value, a very small R2, a measure of statistical and scientific importance, indicates that ethnicity has an almost negligible association with the repeated blood pressure outcomes for the study.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.