Major histocompatibility complex-I (MHC-I) molecules play a central role in the immune response to viruses and cancers. They present peptides on the surface of affected cells, for recognition by cytotoxic T cells. Determining which peptides are presented, and in what proportion, has profound implications for developing effective, medical treatments. However, our ability to predict peptide presentation levels is currently limited. Existing prediction algorithms focus primarily on the binding affinity of peptides to MHC-I, and do not predict the relative abundance of individual peptides on the surface of antigen-presenting cells in situ which is a critical parameter for determining the strength and specificity of the ensuing immune response. Here, we develop and experimentally verify a mechanistic model for predicting cell-surface presentation of competing peptides. Our approach explicitly models key steps in the processing of intracellular peptides, incorporating both peptide binding affinity and intracellular peptide abundance. We use the resulting model to predict how the peptide repertoire is modified by interferon-γ, an immune modulator well known to enhance expression of antigen processing and presentation proteins.

The statistical theory of polymers tethered around the inner surface of a cylindrical channel has traditionally employed the assumption that the equilibrium density of the polymers is independent of the azimuthal coordinate. However, simulations have shown that this rotational symmetry can be broken when there are attractive interactions between the polymers. We investigate the phases that emerge in these circumstances, and we quantify the effect of the symmetry assumption on the phase behavior of the system. In the absence of this assumption, one can observe large differences in the equilibrium densities between the rotationally symmetric case and the non-rotationally symmetric case. A simple analytical model is developed that illustrates the driving thermodynamic forces responsible for this symmetry breaking. Our results have implications for the current understanding of the polymer behavior in cylindrical nanopores.

T lymphocytes are stimulated when they recognize short peptides bound to class I proteins of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein, as peptide–MHC complexes. Due to the diversity in T-cell receptor (TCR) molecules together with both the peptides and MHC proteins they bind to, it has been difficult to design vaccines and treatments based on these interactions. Machine learning has made some progress in trying to predict the immunogenicity of peptide sequences in the context of specific MHC class I alleles but, as such approaches cannot integrate temporal information and lack explanatory power, their scope will always be limited. Here, we advocate a mechanistic description of antigen presentation and TCR activation which is explanatory, predictive, and quantitative, drawing on modeling approaches that collectively span several length and time scales, being capable of furnishing reliable biological descriptions that are difficult for experimentalists to provide. It is a form of multiscale systems biology. We propose the use of chemical rate equations to describe the time evolution of the foreign and host proteins to explain how the original proteins end up being presented on the cell surface as peptide fragments, while we invoke molecular dynamics to describe the key binding processes on the molecular level, including those of peptide–MHC complexes with TCRs which lie at the heart of the immune response. On each level, complementary methods based on machine learning are available, and we discuss the relationship between these divergent approaches. The pursuit of predictive mechanistic modeling approaches requires experimentalists to adapt their work so as to acquire, store, and expose data that can be used to verify and validate such models.

The rate of progression of HIV infected individuals to AIDS is known to vary with the genotype of the host, and is linked to their allele of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) proteins, which present protein degradation products at the cell surface to circulating T-cells. HLA alleles are associated with Gag-specific T-cell responses that are protective against progression of the disease. While Pol is the most conserved HIV sequence, its association with immune control is not as strong. To gain a more thorough quantitative understanding of the factors that contribute to immunodominance, we have constructed a model of the recognition of HIV infection by the MHC class I pathway. Our model predicts surface presentation of HIV peptides over time, demonstrates the importance of viral protein kinetics, and provides evidence of the importance of Gag peptides in the long-term control of HIV infection. Furthermore, short-term dynamics are also predicted, with simulation of virion-derived peptides suggesting that efficient processing of Gag can lead to a 50% probability of presentation within 3 hours post-infection, as observed experimentally. In conjunction with epitope prediction algorithms, this modelling approach could be used to refine experimental targets for potential T-cell vaccines, both for HIV and other viruses.

Epistasis and cooperativity of folding both result from networks of energetic interactions in proteins. Epistasis results from energetic interactions among mutants, whereas cooperativity results from energetic interactions during folding that reduce the presence of intermediate states. The two concepts seem intuitively related, but it is unknown how they are related, particularly in terms of selection. To investigate their relationship, we simulated protein evolution under selection for cooperativity and separately under selection for epistasis. Strong selection for cooperativity created strong epistasis between contacts in the native structure but weakened epistasis between nonnative contacts. In contrast, selection for epistasis increased epistasis in both native and nonnative contacts and reduced cooperativity. Because epistasis can be used to predict protein structure only if it preferentially occurs in native contacts, this result indicates that selection for cooperativity may be key for predicting structure using epistasis. To evaluate this inference, we simulated the evolution of guanine nucleotide-binding protein (GB1) with and without cooperativity. With cooperativity, strong epistatic interactions clearly map out the native GB1 structure, while allowing the presence of intermediate states (low cooperativity) obscured the structure. This indicates that using epistasis measurements to reconstruct protein structure may be inappropriate for proteins with stable intermediates.