Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.

To take complete advantage of information on within-species polymorphism and divergence from close relatives, one needs to know the rate and the molecular spectrum of spontaneous mutations. To this end, we have searched for de novo spontaneous mutations in the complete nuclear genomes of five Arabidopsis thaliana mutation accumulation lines that had been maintained by single-seed descent for 30 generations. We identified and validated 99 base substitutions and 17 small and large insertions and deletions. Our results imply a spontaneous mutation rate of 7 × 10−9 base substitutions per site per generation, the majority of which are G:C→A:T transitions. We explain this very biased spectrum of base substitution mutations as a result of two main processes: deamination of methylated cytosines and ultraviolet light–induced mutagenesis.

Recent theoretical work in quantitative genetics has fueled interest in measuring natural selection in the wild. We discuss statistical and biological issues that may arise in applications of Lande and Arnold's (1983) multiple-regression approach to measuring selection. We review assumptions involved in estimation and hypothesis testing in regression problems, and we note difficulties that frequently arise as a result of violation of these assumptions. In particular, multicollinearity (extreme intercorrelation of characters) and extrinsic, unmeasured factors affecting fitness may seriously complicate inference regarding selection. Further, violation of the assumption that residuals are normally distributed vitiates tests of significance. For this situation, we suggest applications of recently developed jackknife tests of significance. While fitness regression permits direct assessment of selection in a form suitable for predicting selection response, we suggest that the aim of inferring causal relationships about the effects of phenotypic characters on fitness is greatly facilitated by manipulative experiments. Finally, we discuss alternative definitions of stabilizing and disruptive selection.

We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more arid climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection, among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change.

Natural populations of guppies were subjected to an episode of directional selection that mimicked natural processes. The resulting rate of evolution of age and size at maturity was similar to rates typically obtained for traits subjected to artificial selection in laboratory settings and up to seven orders of magnitude greater than rates inferred from the paleontological record. Male traits evolved more rapidly than female traits largely because males had more genetic variation upon which natural selection could act. These results are considered in light of the ongoing debate about the importance of natural selection versus other processes in the paleontological record of evolution.