The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.

Critical to the mitigation of parasitic vector-borne diseases is the development of accurate spatial predictions that integrate environmental conditions conducive to pathogen proliferation. Species of Plasmodium and Trypanosoma readily infect humans, and are also common in birds. Here, we develop predictive spatial models for the prevalence of these blood parasites in the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea). Since this species exhibits high natural parasite prevalence and occupies diverse habitats in tropical Africa, it represents a distinctive ecological model system for studying vector-borne pathogens. We used PCR and microscopy to screen for haematozoa from 28 sites in Central and West Africa. Species distribution models were constructed to associate ground-based and remotely sensed environmental variables with parasite presence. We then used machine-learning algorithm models to identify relationships between parasite prevalence and environmental predictors. Finally, predictive maps were generated by projecting model outputs to geographically unsampled areas. Results indicate that for Plasmodium spp., the maximum temperature of the warmest month was most important in predicting prevalence. For Trypanosoma spp., seasonal canopy moisture variability was the most important predictor. The models presented here visualize gradients of disease prevalence, identify pathogen hotspots and will be instrumental in studying the effects of ecological change on these and other pathogens.

Previous genetic studies of the highly mobile grey wolf (Canis lupus) found population structure that coincides with habitat and phenotype differences. We hypothesized that these ecologically distinct populations (ecotypes) should exhibit signatures of selection in genes related to morphology, coat colour and metabolism. To test these predictions, we quantified population structure related to habitat using a genotyping array to assess variation in 42 036 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 111 North American grey wolves. Using these SNP data and individual-level measurements of 12 environmental variables, we identified six ecotypes: West Forest, Boreal Forest, Arctic, High Arctic, British Columbia and Atlantic Forest. Next, we explored signals of selection across these wolf ecotypes through the use of three complementary methods to detect selection: FST /haplotype homozygosity bivariate percentilae, bayescan, and environmentally correlated directional selection with bayenv. Across all methods, we found consistent signals of selection on genes related to morphology, coat coloration, metabolism, as predicted, as well as vision and hearing. In several high-ranking candidate genes, including LEPR, TYR and SLC14A2, we found variation in allele frequencies that follow environmental changes in temperature and precipitation, a result that is consistent with local adaptation rather than genetic drift. Our findings show that local adaptation can occur despite gene flow in a highly mobile species and can be detected through a moderately dense genomic scan. These patterns of local adaptation revealed by SNP genotyping likely reflect high fidelity to natal habitats of dispersing wolves, strong ecological divergence among habitats, and moderate levels of linkage in the wolf genome.

Nuclear sequence data, often from multiple loci, are increasingly being employed in analyses of population structure and history, yet there has been relatively little evaluation of methods for accurately and efficiently separating the alleles or haplotypes in heterozygous individuals. We compared the performance of a computational method of haplotype reconstruction and standard cloning methods using a highly variable intron (ornithine decarboxylase, intron 6) in three closely related species of dabbling ducks (genus Anas). Cloned sequences from 32 individuals were compared to results obtained from phase 2.1.1 . phase correctly identified haplotypes in 28 of 30 heterozygous individuals when the underlying model assumed no recombination. Haplotypes of the remaining two individuals were also inferred correctly except for unique polymorphisms, the phase of which was appropriately indicated as uncertain (phase probability = 0.5). For a larger set of 232 individuals, results were essentially identical regardless of the recombination model used and haplotypes for all 30 of the tested heterozygotes were correctly inferred, with the exception of uncertain phase for unique polymorphisms in one individual. In contrast, initial sequences of one clone per sample yielded accurate haplotype determination in only 26 of 30 individuals; polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/cloning errors resulting from misincorporation of individual nucleotides could be recognized and avoided by comparison to direct sequences, but errors due to PCR recombination resulted in incorrect haplotype reconstruction in four individuals. The accuracy of haplotypes reconstructed by phase, even when dealing with a relatively small number of samples and numerous variable sites, suggests broad utility of computational approaches for reducing the cost and improving the efficiency of data collection from nuclear sequence loci.

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