The optimal treatment of patients with cancer depends on establishing accurate diagnoses by using a complex combination of clinical and histopathological data. In some instances, this task is difficult or impossible because of atypical clinical presentation or histopathology. To determine whether the diagnosis of multiple common adult malignancies could be achieved purely by molecular classification, we subjected 218 tumor samples, spanning 14 common tumor types, and 90 normal tissue samples to oligonucleotide microarray gene expression analysis. The expression levels of 16,063 genes and expressed sequence tags were used to evaluate the accuracy of a multiclass classifier based on a support vector machine algorithm. Overall classification accuracy was 78%, far exceeding the accuracy of random classification (9%). Poorly differentiated cancers resulted in low-confidence predictions and could not be accurately classified according to their tissue of origin, indicating that they are molecularly distinct entities with dramatically different gene expression patterns compared with their well differentiated counterparts. Taken together, these results demonstrate the feasibility of accurate, multiclass molecular cancer classification and suggest a strategy for future clinical implementation of molecular cancer diagnostics.

Embryonal tumours of the central nervous system (CNS) represent a heterogeneous group of tumours about which little is known biologically, and whose diagnosis, on the basis of morphologic appearance alone, is controversial. Medulloblastomas, for example, are the most common malignant brain tumour of childhood, but their pathogenesis is unknown, their relationship to other embryonal CNS tumours is debated, and patients' response to therapy is difficult to predict. We approached these problems by developing a classification system based on DNA microarray gene expression data derived from 99 patient samples. Here we demonstrate that medulloblastomas are molecularly distinct from other brain tumours including primitive neuroectodermal tumours (PNETs), atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumours (AT/RTs) and malignant gliomas. Previously unrecognized evidence supporting the derivation of medulloblastomas from cerebellar granule cells through activation of the Sonic Hedgehog (SHH) pathway was also revealed. We show further that the clinical outcome of children with medulloblastomas is highly predictable on the basis of the gene expression profiles of their tumours at diagnosis.

A statistical methodology for estimating dataset size requirements for classifying microarray data using learning curves is introduced. The goal is to use existing classification results to estimate dataset size requirements for future classification experiments and to evaluate the gain in accuracy and significance of classifiers built with additional data. The method is based on fitting inverse power-law models to construct empirical learning curves. It also includes a permutation test procedure to assess the statistical significance of classification performance for a given dataset size. This procedure is applied to several molecular classification problems representing a broad spectrum of levels of complexity.

The October 2003 version replaced a previous revision (April 2003) of a rather flawed CBCL Paper 223 and AI Memo 2002-024, Massachusetts Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.