Ecological niche models (ENM) have been used with mixed success for predicting the geographic extent of non-native species to aid management and conservation. This approach is problematic for predicting invasions of patchily-distributed species (e.g., pond-breeding amphibians), whose occurrence is often determined by local habitat conditions. Here, we tested the performance of bioclimatic ENM for predicting occurrence (from repeated surveys) of two non-native pond-breeding anurans at 71 wetlands in British Columbia, Canada: permanent pond specialist American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), and generalist green frog (Lithobates clamitans). For L. catesbeianus, we assessed the risk of invasion beyond the invasion front. We found higher correlation between ENM and occupancy predictions for L. clamitans (r s = 0.58), than for L. catesbeianus (r s = -0.26). L. clamitans occurrence was highest at low elevations and high annual precipitation; in contrast, L. catesbeianus occupancy was predicted by wetland connectivity and distance from a historic introduction site [low at isolated ponds [50 km from the introduction site, and high ([0.8) at all ponds with [10 % water within 500 m]. Conditional on successful dispersal, four sites beyond the L. catesbeianus invasion front surveyed in this study were at high risk of invasion due to high habitat suitability (proportion of area occupied = 0.33; 0.04-0.83, 95 % CI). In conclusion, ENMs may be useful for informing invasion management for climate driven wetland species, but repeated sampling is necessary to predict invasions for habitat-driven wetland species.

Human activities frequently create structures that alter the connectivity among habitats or act as barriers to the natural movement of animals. Movement allows individuals to access different habitats, connect life history stages, and maintain genetic diversity. Here, we evaluated whether run‐of‐river (RoR) hydropower projects, an emerging renewable energy source in British Columbia, interrupt the longitudinal connectivity among larval stream amphibians, by altering larval rearing densities, with possible repercussions on growth and survival. In three watersheds, we tested for differences in the average upstream and downstream density of larval coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei), as well as changes to their longitudinal distribution upstream of the dams, as would be expected if RoR dams or their headponds act as barriers to the natural downstream drift of larvae. We found a 60% decrease in larval densities downstream compared to upstream of dams, consistent with RoR dams interrupting the natural pattern of downstream A. truei drift. Larval densities in the first 10 m above RoR headponds were 3 times higher compared to 100 m upstream, and when expressed in terms of relative abundance, we find a similar pattern, with between 2.5 and 3 times more larvae in the first 10 m above of the headpond than expected if larvae followed a uniform distribution. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that RoR dams alter the spatial connectivity of A. truei larvae, leading to an accumulation of larvae directly above the dam, with unknown consequences for larval growth and survival. Our findings suggest caution is warranted when interpreting before–after monitoring studies that are often used to evaluate the impact of dams, whereby we find that reductions in downstream densities could be due to interruptions of downstream movement as opposed to direct mortality.