The monk parakeet, Myiopsitta monachus, is a species of parrot that is native to South America. By 2016 it had become invasive in Mexico and its populations have since increased dramatically, particularly in urban areas. It is currently difficult to predict whether it will expand into non–urban areas of the country. The aim of this work was to assess the risk of invasion of this parakeet into the Natural Protected Areas (NPAs) of Mexico, where interaction with the native parrots is worrisome due to the aggressive nature of this parakeet. Using potential distribution models we evaluated this risk using MaxEnt. We performed a functional analysis of all native parrots of Mexico and M. monachus seeking possible competition or displacement of the species. According to the MaxEnt model, the Biosphere Reserve Tehuacán–Cuicatlán is the NPA with the highest risk of such invasion (~42 % of its area presents climatically suitable values ≥ 0.75). The functional trait assessment revealed that the barred parakeet, Bolborhynchus lineola, is the species most similar (97 %) to the invasive monk parakeet. It is naturally distributed in the Biosphere Reserve of Tehuacán–Cuicatlán and, from all functional traits considered, differs only in nesting type. This study shows the potential risk that the invasive monk parakeet represents in Mexican NPAs, and emphasizes the need for effective actions in order to avoid further potential invasions and expansions of the species occur across Mexico.