The subject of the research is the influence of the debt burden of state-owned companies on the dynamics of Russia’s corporate external debt. The relevance is due to the unprecedented combination of sanctions in 2022, which created default risks of national companies. The goal of the article is to identify factors influencing changes in the amount of external debt. Based on a quarterly sample for 2010–2019 (37 observations), using the least squares method (LSM), a regression model was built for the dependence of corporate debt dynamics on micro– and macroeconomic factors (debt service ratio and credit rating of companies, foreign assets, ACRA financial stress index, rate changes of USD/RUB, credit default swap (CDS), export volume, balance of payments). An analysis of their credit risk was carried out by comparing the dynamics of the debt sustainability ratio (DSR) with the rating and cost of CDS, and the quarterly income support of debt was calculated. As a result of testing the hypotheses, a positive relationship was revealed between DSR and ratings of state-owned companies for changes in banks’ external debt, while for enterprises they do not play a key role. It was concluded that the growth of loan premiums in 2014–2015 was due to political factors, and by the new crisis, the companies had accumulated reserves for absorbing the shock. Measures are proposed to reduce debt risks – coordination of debt policy, debt «import substitution», monitoring of new financial indicators of companies, control of cross-border capital flow, etc.

The article examines the possible consequences of the new “Great Lockdown” crisis and their impact on the stability of the corporate sector in terms of external obligations. The author examines the trends in the dynamics of external debt and formulates the main threats to macroeconomic stability (sanctions, world recession, low oil prices), describes the scenario of shock propagation and its impact on companies’ solvency. Based on a sample for the period from 2006Q1 to 2020Q1 (57 observations) using the least squares method, three theoretical regression models (for the entire period, shock and “quiet” quarters) were constructed to explain the change in the level of debt burden of the corporate sector from a number of macroeconomic variables: capital outflow, foreign assets, oil prices, LIBOR rates, credit bond spread, etc. The results obtained can be used in the implementation of debt and prudential policies.

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