Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Here, we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to verify different computational methods in solving a mathematically well-defined, basic faulting problem. We consider a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of results from 11 groups using different numerical methods show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic fault behavior. In BP1, we found that truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture, and that model agreement is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of fault behavior depends on how well physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.
The Himalayan megathrust accommodates most of the relative convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates, producing cycles of blind and surface-breaking ruptures. Elucidating the mechanics of down-dip segmentation of the seismogenic zone is key to better determine seismic hazards in the region. However, the geometry of the Himalayan megathrust and its impact on seismicity remains controversial. Here, we develop seismic cycle simulations tuned to the seismo-geodetic data of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake to better constrain the megathrust geometry and its role on the demarcation of partial ruptures. We show that a ramp in the middle of the seismogenic zone is required to explain the termination of the coseismic rupture and the source mechanism of up-dip aftershocks consistently. Alternative models with a wide décollement can only explain the mainshock. Fault structural complexities likely play an important role in modulating the seismic cycle, in particular, the distribution of rupture sizes. Fault bends are capable of both obstructing rupture propagation as well as behave as a source of seismicity and rupture initiation.
The Ventura Thrust system in California is capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes. Geological studies suggest that the fault geometry is complex, composed of multiple segments at different dips: thrust ramps dipping 30°-50°linked with bed-parallel décollements dipping \ 10°. These latter types of gently dipping faults form due to preexisting weaknesses in the crust, and therefore have different frictional parameters from thrust ramps; the faults also experience different stresses because of how stresses are resolved onto the fault planes. Here, we use a twodimensional fault model to assess how geometry and frictional properties of the ramp/décollement system should affect the seismic cycle. We test velocity-strengthening, velocity-weakening, and conditionally stable décollements, and in addition explore how the dip angle of the décollement changes the earthquake behavior. A velocity-strengthening décollement cannot replicate the throughgoing earthquake ruptures that have been inferred for the Ventura fault system. We therefore suggest that this and other décollements may be better represented using a velocity-weakening or conditionally stable response. Our results show that minor variations in fault geometry produce slip amounts and recurrence intervals that differ only by 10-20%, but do not fundamentally alter the types of earthquakes and interseismic slip. We conclude that geological constraints on fault geometry are typically sufficient to produce modeled earthquake sequences that are statistically consistent with paleoseismic records. However, both frictional parameters along the fault and effective normal stress influence earthquake rupture patterns significantly. More research is needed to adequately constrain these quantities in order for earthquake rupture models to work as effective predictors of fault behavior.
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