Investigations in recent years of the ecological structure and processes of the Southern Ocean have almost exclusively taken a bottom-up, forcing-by-physical-processes approach relating various species' population trends to climate change. Just 20 years ago, however, researchers focused on a broader set of hypotheses, in part formed around a paradigm positing interspecific interactions as central to structuring the ecosystem (forcing by biotic processes, top-down), and particularly on a "krill surplus" caused by the removal from the system of more than a million baleen whales. Since then, this latter idea has disappeared from favour with little debate. Moreover, it recently has been shown that concurrent with whaling there was a massive depletion of finfish in the Southern Ocean, a finding also ignored in deference to climaterelated explanations of ecosystem change. We present two examples from the literature, one involving gelatinous organisms and the other involving penguins, in which climate has been used to explain species' population trends but which could better be explained by including species interactions in the modelling. We conclude by questioning the almost complete shift in paradigms that has occurred and discuss whether it is leading Southern Ocean marine ecological science in an instructive direction.

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All penguins except emperors Aptenodytes forsteri and Adelies Pygoscelis adeliae moult on land, usually near the breeding colonies. These 2 Antarctic species typically moult somewhere in the pack-ice. Emperor penguins begin their moult in early summer when the pack-ice cover of the Antarctic Ocean is receding. The origin of the few moulting birds seen by observers on passing ships is unknown, and the locations are often far from any known colonies. We attached satellite transmitters to 12 breeding adult A. forsteri from western Ross Sea colonies before they departed the colony for the last time before moulting. In addition, we surveyed some remote areas of the Weddell Sea north and east of some large colonies that are located along the southern and western borders of this sea. The tracked birds moved at a rate of nearly 50 km d -1 for more than 1000 km over 30 d to reach areas of perennially consistent pack-ice. Almost all birds traveled to the eastern Ross Sea and western Amundsen Sea. Sea-ice conditions were observed directly in the Weddell Sea from ship and helicopter. Most floes selected for moulting were ridged, and usually >100 m 2 . From these observations we predict where the most likely moult refuges are for emperor penguins from other colonies around the Antarctic continent.

Abstract:The Antarctic Roadmap Challenges (ARC) project identified critical requirements to deliver high priority Antarctic research in the 21st century. The ARC project addressed the challenges of enabling technologies, facilitating access, providing logistics and infrastructure, and capitalizing on international co-operation. Technological requirements include: i) innovative automated in situ observing systems, sensors and interoperable platforms (including power demands), ii) realistic and holistic numerical models, iii) enhanced remote sensing and sensors, iv) expanded sample collection and retrieval technologies, and v) greater cyber-infrastructure to process 'big data' collection, transmission and analyses while promoting data accessibility. These technologies must be widely available, performance and reliability must be improved and technologies used elsewhere must be applied to the Antarctic. Considerable Antarctic research is field-based, making access to vital geographical targets essential. Future research will require continentand ocean-wide environmentally responsible access to coastal and interior Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Year-round access is indispensable. The cost of future Antarctic science is great but there are opportunities for all to participate commensurate with national resources, expertise and interests. The scope of future Antarctic research will necessitate enhanced and inventive interdisciplinary and international collaborations. The full promise of Antarctic science will only be realized if nations act together.

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