Objective This study aimed to analyse the phenotype of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) at first presentation and during follow-up in a newly established SLE cohort based at ‘Attikon’ University Hospital. The hospital combines primary, secondary and tertiary care for the region of Western Attica, Greece. Methods This study comprised a mixed prevalent and incident cohort of 555 Caucasian patients diagnosed with SLE according to American College of Rheumatology 1997 criteria and/or the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 criteria. Demographic and clinical characteristics, patterns of severity, treatments and SLICC damage index were recorded for each patient at the time of diagnosis and at last evaluation. Results The mean age at lupus diagnosis was 38.3 years (standard deviation = 15.6 years), with a median disease duration at last follow-up of two years (interquartile range 1-11). At initial presentation, the most common ‘classification’ manifestations were arthritis (73.3%), acute cutaneous lupus (65%) and unexplained fever (25%), while among symptoms not included in any criteria set, Raynaud’s phenomenon (33%) was the most common. Kidney and neuropsychiatric involvement as presenting manifestations were present in 10.3% and 11.5% cases, respectively. Irreversible damage accrual was present in 17.8% within six months of disease diagnosis, attributed mainly to thrombotic and neuropsychiatric disease. At last evaluation, 202 (36.4%) patients had developed severe disease, of whom more than half were treated with pulse cyclophosphamide. Conclusion In this cohort of Caucasian patients, lupus nephritis is not as common as in older cohorts, while neuropsychiatric disease is emerging as a major frontier in lupus prevention and care. These data may help to document changes in the natural history and treatment of SLE over time and may have implications for its early recognition and management.

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ObjectiveChanges in the care of patients with SLE dictate a re-evaluation of its natural history and risk factors for disease deterioration and damage accrual. We sought to decipher factors predictive of a deterioration in phenotype (‘transition’) in patients initially presenting with non-severe disease.MethodsPatients from the ‘Attikon’ cohort with disease duration ≥1 year were included. Disease at diagnosis was categorised as mild, moderate or severe, based on the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group manifestations and physician judgement. ‘Transition’ in severity was defined as an increase in category of severity at any time from diagnosis to last follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify baseline factors associated with this transition.Results462 patients were followed for a median (IQR) of 36 (120) months. At diagnosis, more than half (56.5%) had a mild phenotype. During disease course, transition to more severe forms was seen in 44.2%, resulting in comparable distribution among severity patterns at last follow-up (mild 28.4%, moderate 33.1%, severe 38.5%). Neuropsychiatric involvement at onset (OR 6.33, 95% CI 1.22 to 32.67), male sex (OR 4.53, 95% CI 1.23 to 16.60) and longer disease duration (OR 1.09 per 1 year, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.14) were independently associated with transition from mild or moderate to severe disease. Patients with disease duration ≥3 years who progressed to more severe disease had more than 20-fold increased risk to accrue irreversible damage.ConclusionAlmost half of patients with initially non-severe disease progress to more severe forms of SLE, especially men and patients with positive anti-double-stranded DNA or neuropsychiatric involvement at onset. These data may have implications for the management of milder forms of lupus.

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