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The Yonge Street Aquifer (YSA) in the Greater Toronto Area of south-central Ontario is a prolific municipal supply aquifer. It has been considered to be channelized sand and gravel linked to a bedrock valley. Despite considerable work, the fundamental conceptual model for the YSA is not well developed and documented. Based on high-quality data, a revised conceptual model of the aquifer is presented. Seismic profiles define the geometry of the regional stratigraphy with four distinct units: bedrock, Lower sediments, Newmarket Till, and Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) sediment. Seismic data reveal two generations of roughly north–south channels: older sub-Newmarket Till channels within Lower sediments (termed Thorncliffe channel) and ORM-related channels (termed ORM channel) that incise both Newmarket Till and Lower sediments. The YSA is interpreted to occur within a Thorncliffe channel, with possible vertical connection to younger ORM channels and lateral connection to inter-channel Lower sediments. Thorncliffe channel deposits consist of fining-upward transitions from coarse gravel, to sand, to rhythmically bedded mud interpreted to be deposited within a channel – esker – subaqueous fan complex. Upper Thorncliffe channel mud facies and overlying Newmarket Till provide a capping aquitard. The YSA conceptual model benefits from a strong understanding of facies changes in the Thorncliffe Formation. The deposits with highest permeability occur within up to 80 m thick gravel and sand sequences at the base of the Thorncliffe channel, with transmissivity ranging from 1500 to 4500 m2/day. Groundwater level response to municipal pumping confirms connection along the channel with muted hydraulic response laterally. Thorncliffe channels are interpreted to be up to 20 km long and approximately 2 km wide.

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This study evaluated the capability of four spatial hydrologic models to estimate summer lowflow stream discharge, as a surrogate for baseflow, and assessed the influence of land cover/land use on these flows, in small streams across the Oak Ridges Moraine. Low-flow discharge varied predictably with area of the upstream catchment, but also with reach slope and a measure of land cover disturbance (LDI). Low-flow volumes were lowest in streams with moderate agricultural and/or urban development (LDI of eight to 12%), and high over a range of development intensities. Each of Baseflow Index (BFI×Area), Darcy Index (DI), MODFLOW (MF) and a finer resolution MODFLOW model (FMF) were about equal in their capability to estimate low-flow discharge, with MF and FMF having a somewhat stronger relationship and Darcy Index having a somewhat poorer relationship, particularly in smaller catchments. Each of the models generally predicted low-flow discharge volumes to within about 400 L/s of the actual observed low-flow discharge. The models, therefore, were generally unable to predict whether a stream was flowing during periods of low-flow when the upstream catchment was smaller than about 17,800 ha. It was found that these methods cannot be reliably applied in small catchments as there is too much natural variability in flow conditions. This paper suggests that these methods do not reflect local conditions, but rather provide generalized information about water flows. As a result, it is recommended that until spatial model predictions are improved for local applications, water managers should invest in field surveys to confirm flow conditions in small catchments. Résumé : La présente étude avait pour objectif d'une part d'évaluer quatre modèles hydrologiques spatiaux afin d'en dégager la capacité d'estimation du débit d'étiage d'été, en tant que substitut du débit de base, et, d'autre part, d'évaluer l'incidence sur ces débits de la couverture terrestre et de l'affectation des terres dans les petits cours d'eau à l'échelle de la moraine d'Oak Ridges. Les débits d'étiage variaient de manière prévisible selon la zone du bassin hydrographique en amont, mais également selon la pente du bief et selon une mesure de la perturbation de la couverture terrestre (PCT). Les volumes en période que les prédictions du modèle spatial soient améliorées pour les applications locales, les gestionnaires de l'eau auraient intérêt à investir dans les études sur le terrain afin de confirmer les conditions d'écoulement dans les petits bassins hydrographiques.

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