Abstract. Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.

The boreal landscape is a complex, spatio-temporally varying mosaic of forest and mire landscape elements that control surface water hydrology and chemistry. Here, we assess long-term water quality time series from three nested headwater streams draining upland forest (C2), peat/mire (C4) and mixed (C7) (forest and mire) catchments. Acid deposition in this region is low and is further declining. Temporal trends in weather and runoff (1981–2008), dissolved organic carbon concentration [DOC] (1993–2010) and other water quality parameters (1987–2011) were assessed. There was no significant annual trend in precipitation or runoff. However, runoff increased in March and declined in May. This suggested an earlier snowmelt regime in recent years. Significant monotonic increasing trends in air temperature and length of growing season suggested a decrease in snowfall and less spring runoff. Stream [DOC] was positively correlated with some trace metals (copper, iron and zinc) and negatively with several other chemical parameters (e.g. sulfate, conductivity, calcium). Both sulfate and conductivity showed declining trends, while a significant increase was observed in pH during winter and spring. Calcium and magnesium showed monotonic decreasing trends. The declining trajectories of stream base cation and sulfate concentrations during other times of the year were not accompanied by changes in pH and alkalinity. These results indicate subtle effects of recovery from acidification. Water temperature increased significantly both annually and in most months. A simultaneous monotonic increase in iron (Fe) and [DOC] in autumn suggests co-transport of Fe-DOC in the form of organometallic complexes. A monotonic increase in UV absorbance in most months without co-occurring changes in DOC trend suggests a shift in DOC quality to a more humic-rich type. The observed increase in soil solution [DOC] and subtle trends in stream [DOC] suggest that climate rather than recovery from acidification is the dominant driver of DOC trends in the Svartberget catchment

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