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The main objectives of this study were to define the occurrence and levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in asymptomatic HBV carriers, cirrhosis patients and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases from The Gambia, and to evaluate the risk for cirrhosis or HCC associated with HBV viremia. We used sensitive real-time quantitative PCR assays to measure HBV DNA in samples from a case–control study consisting of 60 asymptomatic HBV carriers, 53 cirrhotic patients and 129 HCC cases. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risks of cirrhosis and HCC associated with HBV-DNA levels and HBV e antigenemia (HBeAg) detection (a surrogate marker for viral replication). Detectable HBV viremia and HBeAg positivity were both significantly associated with cirrhosis (increasing risk by fourfold and 11-fold respectively) and with HCC (increasing risk by sixfold and threefold respectively). HBV-DNA levels were significantly higher in both HCC cases and cirrhotic patients compared to asymptomatic carriers (P<0.01 for both). High-level HBV DNA (>10 000 copies/mL) was strongly associated with both HCC and cirrhosis (17- and 39-fold increased risk). Lower level HBV viremia (200–10 000 copies/mL) conferred a significant risk of HCC, although the association with cirrhosis was not significant. In conclusion, we find that high HBV-DNA levels are strongly associated with the serious sequelae of HBV infection, independent of HBeAg status. While risk for cirrhosis and for HCC notably increases at HBV-DNA levels ≥10 000 copies/mL, low-level viremia was also associated with significant risk for HCC.

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Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can evade immunity shortly after transmission to a new host but the clinical significance of this early viral adaptation in HIV infection is not clear. We present an analysis of sequence variation from a longitudinal cohort study of HIV adaptation in 189 acute seroconverters followed for up to 3 years. We measured the rates of variation within well-defined epitopes to determine associations with the HLA-linked hazard of disease progression. We found early reversion across both the gag and pol genes, with a 10-fold faster rate of escape in gag (2.2 versus 0.27 forward mutations/1,000 amino acid sites). For most epitopes (23/34), variation in the HLA-matched and HLA-unmatched controls was similar. For a minority of epitopes (8/34, and generally associated with HLA class I alleles that confer clinical benefit), new variants appeared early and consistently over the first 3 years of infection. Reversion occurred early at a rate which was HLA-dependent and correlated with the HLA class 1-associated relative hazard of disease progression and death (P ‫؍‬ 0.0008), reinforcing the association between strong cytotoxic T-lymphocyte responses, viral fitness, and disease status. These data provide a comprehensive overview of viral adaptation in the first 3 years of infection. Our findings of HLA-dependent reversion suggest that costs are borne by some escape variants which may benefit the host, a finding contrary to a simple immune evasion paradigm. These epitopes, which are both strongly and frequently recognized, and for which escape involves a high cost to the virus, have the potential to optimize vaccine design.

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