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The effect of solar radiation on thermal distribution in thin high arch dams is investigated. The differential equation governing thermal behavior of mass concrete in three-dimensional space is solved applying appropriate boundary conditions. Solar radiation is implemented considering the dam face direction relative to the sun, the slop relative to horizon, the region cloud cover, and the surrounding topography. It has been observed that solar radiation changes the surface temperature drastically and leads to nonuniform temperature distribution. Solar radiation effects should be considered in thermal transient analysis of thin arch dams.

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Recently, probabilistic simulations became an inseparable part of risk analysis. Managers and stakeholders prefer to make their decision knowing the existing uncertainties in the system. Nonlinear dynamic analysis and design of infrastructures are affected by two main uncertainty sources, i.e., epistemic and aleatory. In the present paper, the epistemic uncertainty is addressed in the context of material randomness. An old ultra-high arch dam is selected as a vehicle for numerical analyses. Four material properties are selected as random variables in the coupled dam-reservoir-foundation system, i.e., concrete elasticity, mass density, compressive (and tensile) strength, and the rock modulus of elasticity. The efficient Box-Behnken experimental design is adopted to minimize the required simulations. A response surface metamodel is developed for the system based on different outputs, i.e., displacement and damage index. The polynomial-based response surface model is subsequently validated with a large number of simulations based on Latin Hypercube sampling. Results confirm the high accuracy of proposed technique in material uncertainty quantification.