The United States needs to add at least 20 GW of peaking capacity to its grid over the next 10 years, led by large-scale projects in California, Texas and Arizona. Of that, about 60% must be installed between 2023 and 2027, meaning that the energy storage industry has more time to build an economic advantage by lowering costs and improving performance to compete with conventional gas peakers. In this paper, we assess the technical feasibility of utility-scale PV plus battery energy storage (PVS) to provide high capacity factors during summer peak demand periods using a target period capacity factor (TPCF) framework as an alternative to natural gas peakers. Also, a new metric called “Lifetime Cost of Operation” (LCOO) is introduced to provide a metric, focusing on the raw installation and operational costs of PVS technology compared to natural-gas fired peaker plants (simple cycle or conventional combustion turbine) during the target period window. The target period window is the time period during which it is valuable for power plants to provide firm capacity usually during early or late evening peak demand periods in the summer months (from April to September); a framework for which is increasingly being asked for by utilities in recent request for proposals (RFPs). A 50 MWAC PV system with 60 MW/240 MWh battery storage modelled in California can provide >98% capacity factor over a 7–10 p.m. target period with lower LCOO than a conventional combustion turbine natural gas power plant.
The integrated regional energy policy and planning (IREPP) framework was devised to evaluate the feasibility of energy policies in meeting declared national targets. While the framework advances the comprehensiveness of the feasibility assessment by bringing in concepts like environment economic equity, the muted way in which institutional factors and capacity are addressed remains weak and ineffective. Here, we corrected this weakness by presenting an IREPP framework that is enhanced by integrating principles of the institutional assessment and design (IAD) framework. The IAD framework emphasizes the careful consideration of contextual factors, it draws attention to the full range of transaction costs, and does not presume a priori that one type of institutional arrangement. This IREPP-IAD framework was used to evaluate the feasibility of energy policies in three different island jurisdictions—Taiwan, Mauritius, and Trinidad and Tobago. With ambitious national targets, these islands are good testing grounds for this updated approach. Through qualitative comparative case study analysis, several institutional factors were found to play an influence if national energy policies are likely to meet set targets. These factors included: government/policy decision makers and the decision/policymaking environment; governance structure and commitment for energy policy; existing policy instruments and tools that are in play and those planned; polycentricity; stakeholder participation and community building; market dynamics; information transparency; pilot programs and technology innovations/research; compliance or responsibilities under the Paris Accord; grid connectivity and monitoring of the policy implementation progress. This study contributes in two ways. First, by providing a more robust framework for assessing institutional arrangements that moderate how energy policies are implemented and second, providing insightful assessments of the energy policies in three island jurisdictions, thereby increasing our understanding of island energy policymaking and implementation in these understudied geographies.
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