A number of models have recently been, or are currently being, developed to enable the assessment of radiation doses from ionising radiation to non-human species. A key component of these models is the ability to predict whole-organism activity concentrations in a wide range of wildlife. In this paper, we compare the whole-organism activity concentrations predicted by eight models participating within the IAEA Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety programme for a range of radionuclides to terrestrial and freshwater organisms. In many instances, there was considerable variation, ranging over orders of magnitude, between the predictions of the different models. Reasons for this variability (including methodology, data source and data availability) are identified and discussed. The active participation of groups responsible for the development of key models within this exercise is a useful step forward in providing the transparency in methodology and data provenance required for models which are either currently being used for regulatory purposes or which may be used in the future. The work reported in this paper, and supported by other findings, demonstrates that the largest contribution to variability between model predictions is the parameterisation of their transfer components. There is a clear need to focus efforts and provide authoritative compilations of those data which are available.
There is now general acknowledgement that there is a requirement to demonstrate that species other than humans are protected from anthropogenic releases of radioactivity. A number of approaches have been developed for estimating the exposure of wildlife and some of these are being used to conduct regulatory assessments. There is a requirement to compare the outputs of such approaches against available data sets to ensure that they are robust and fit for purpose. In this paper we describe the application of seven approaches for predicting the whole-body ((90)Sr, (137)Cs, (241)Am and Pu isotope) activity concentrations and absorbed dose rates for a range of terrestrial species within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Predictions are compared against available measurement data, including estimates of external dose rate recorded by thermoluminescent dosimeters attached to rodent species. Potential reasons for differences between predictions between the various approaches and the available data are explored.
Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, activity concentrations of (60)Co, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (3)H in Perch Lake at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Chalk River Laboratories site were predicted, in freshwater primary producers, invertebrates, fishes, herpetofauna and mammals using eleven modelling approaches. Comparison of predicted radionuclide concentrations in the different species types with measured values highlighted a number of areas where additional work and understanding is required to improve the predictions of radionuclide transfer. For some species, the differences could be explained by ecological factors such as trophic level or the influence of stable analogues. Model predictions were relatively poor for mammalian species and herpetofauna compared with measured values, partly due to a lack of relevant data. In addition, concentration ratios are sometimes under-predicted when derived from experiments performed under controlled laboratory conditions representative of conditions in other water bodies.
The equilibrium concentration ratio is typically the parameter used to estimate organism 17 activity concentrations within wildlife dose assessment tools. Whilst this is assumed to be fit
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