Recent meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated significant reduction in cancer mortality by vitamin D supplementation. We estimated costs and savings for preventing cancer deaths by vitamin D supplementation of the population aged 50+ years in Germany. Our analysis is based on national data on cancer mortality in 2016. The number of preventable cancer deaths was estimated by multiplying cancer deaths above age 50 with the estimated proportionate reduction in cancer mortality derived by vitamin D supplementation according to meta-analyses of RCTs (13%). Saved costs were estimated by multiplying this number by estimated end-of-life cancer care costs (€40 000). Annual costs of vitamin D supplementation were estimated at 25€ per person above age 50. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the main analysis, vitamin D supplementation was estimated to prevent almost 30 000 cancer deaths per year at approximate costs of €900 million and savings of €1.154 billion, suggesting net savings of €254 million. Our results support promotion of supplementation of vitamin D among older adults as a costsaving approach to substantially reduce cancer mortality.

Background: Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials have shown that vitamin D supplementation reduces cancer mortality by 13%. Vitamin D fortification of foods may increase vitamin D levels in a similar manner as vitamin D supplementation and could achieve similar reductions in cancer mortality. Whereas some European countries already implemented widespread fortification of foods with vitamin D, in other countries only few or no foods are fortified. In this study, we estimated the reduction in cancer mortality presumably already achieved by current fortification policies in 2017 and the potential for further reductions if all countries had effective fortification. Methods: We reviewed scientific literature, publicly available information, and contacted health authorities to obtain information on current vitamin D food fortification policies in 34 European countries. Together with country-specific cancer death statistics from Eurostat, information on life expectancy, and country-specific fortification policies, we used data from studies on supplementation and serum 25(OH)D increases and cancer mortality to estimate numbers of probably already prevented cancer deaths and numbers of potentially further preventable deaths and years of life lost. Results: Current vitamin D fortification is estimated to prevent approximately 11,000 in the European Union and 27,000 cancer deaths in all European countries considered per year. If all countries considered here would implement adequate vitamin D fortification of foods, an estimated additional 129,000 cancer deaths (113,000 in the European Union) could be prevented, corresponding to almost 1.2 million prevented years of life lost (1.0 million in the EU) or approximately 9% of cancer deaths (10% in the EU). Interpretation: Systematic fortification of foods might considerably reduce the burden of cancer deaths in Europe.