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The present study is concerned with the development of an enhanced probabilistic model for cleavage assessment of ferritic steels. An enhanced model for the probabilistic cleavage fracture assessment has to consider the conditions for both, nucleation and propagation of micro defects. Hence, a propagation based model is enhanced by a combination of the local plastic strain and the local stress triaxiality to account for the nucleation of potentially critical micro defects. The formulation of the new model is based on the local mechanical field quantities determined numerically at the cleavage origins for a variety of standard deep and shallow crack specimens as well as for small scale cruciform bending specimens.