In December 2019, the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group (V-MOD) adopted the thirteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). This IGRF updates the previous generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2015.0, a main field model for epoch 2020.0, and a predictive linear secular variation for 2020.0 to 2025.0. This letter provides the equations defining the IGRF, the spherical harmonic coefficients for this thirteenth generation model, maps of magnetic declination, inclination and total field intensity for the epoch 2020.0, and maps of their predicted rate of change for the 2020.0 to 2025.0 time period.
We propose a reduced dynamical system describing the coupled evolution of fluid flow and magnetic field at the top of the Earth's core between the years 1900 and 2014. The flow evolution is modeled with a first‐order autoregressive process, while the magnetic field obeys the classical frozen flux equation. An ensemble Kalman filter algorithm serves to constrain the dynamics with the geomagnetic field and its secular variation given by the COV‐OBS.x1 model. Using a large ensemble with 40,000 members provides meaningful statistics including reliable error estimates. The model highlights two distinct flow scales. Slowly varying large‐scale elements include the already documented eccentric gyre. Localized short‐lived structures include distinctly ageostophic features like the high‐latitude polar jet on the Northern Hemisphere. Comparisons with independent observations of the length‐of‐day variations not only validate the flow estimates but also suggest an acceleration of the geostrophic flows over the last century. Hindcasting tests show that our model outperforms simpler predictions bases (linear extrapolation and stationary flow). The predictability limit, of about 2,000 years for the magnetic dipole component, is mostly determined by the random fast varying dynamics of the flow and much less by the geomagnetic data quality or lack of small‐scale information.
This paper reviews the remarkable developments in numerical geodynamo simulations over the last few years. Simulations with Ekman numbers as low as E = 10 −8 are now within reach and more and more details of the observed field are recovered by computer models. However, some newer experimental and ab initio results suggest a rather large thermal conductivity for the liquid iron alloy in Earth's core. More heat would then simply be conducted down the core adiabat and would not be available for driving the dynamo process. The current status of this topic is reported and alternative driving scenarios are discussed. The paper then addresses the question whether dynamo simulations obey the magnetostrophic force balance that characterises the geodynamo and proceeds with discussing related problems like scaling laws and torsional oscillations. Finally, recent developments in geomagnetic data assimilation are reviewed, where geomagnetic data and dynamo simulations are coupled to form a tool for interpreting observations and predicting the future evolution of Earth's magnetic field.
We present a new model of the geomagnetic field spanning the last 20 years and called Kalmag. Deriving from the assimilation of CHAMP and Swarm vector field measurements, it separates the different contributions to the observable field through parameterized prior covariance matrices. To make the inverse problem numerically feasible, it has been sequentialized in time through the combination of a Kalman filter and a smoothing algorithm. The model provides reliable estimates of past, present and future mean fields and associated uncertainties. The version presented here is an update of our IGRF candidates; the amount of assimilated data has been doubled and the considered time window has been extended from [2000.5, 2019.74] to [2000.5, 2020.33].
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