No abstract

Inflation targeting is a prevalent economic policy that is applied increasingly by countries. In addition, the effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic variables is also been considered recently which mostly uses econometric models. One of the most important issues in this regard is that evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting usually confronted with bias in econometric models. In order to solve this problem, it is suggested the Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) which has been used recently by economists. In this paper, it is tried to investigate the impact of inflation targeting on direct taxes and its components in a selected collection of two groups of oil importer and exporter countries by Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) during 1990-2016 years. The results show that adopting inflation targeting framework has a positive and significant effect on tax revenue in oil importer countries; whereas the impact of this policy in oil exporter countries is statistically insignificant and its direction is also ambiguous.

The present study aimed to analyze the forecast error of the tax revenue forecasting in Iran using the fan chart method. To this end, the tax revenue of Iran was forecasted utilizing the data obtained during 1974-2016, as well as Bayesian linear regression model. Then, the uncertainty of such a tax revenue was derived from the uncertainty in correlated macroeconomic variables. In addition, the tax revenue forecast skewness was obtained by internalizing the subjective assessments of macro variables. In most cases, the uncertainty of macro variables is based on their historical standard deviation. However, in the present study, the uncertainty of macro variables was subjectively adjusted in order to find the reason for less or more uncertainty compared to their historical standard deviations. A subjective balance of risk assessment was applied to identify whether the distributions were symmetric or non-symmetric. The results revealed that the fan chart method has high efficiency in depicting the forecast uncertainty of tax revenue and thus can be used in the budget preparation and formulation in Iran.