Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

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Since its birth in 1985, the Barind Multi-purpose Development Project (BMDP) has become a model of a sustainable rural development project in Bangladesh. The project maintains technical soundness by ensuring a high level of water use efficiency and a minimum well spacing. The project runs on full operating and maintenance cost recovery basis, which is achieved through an innovative prepaid water coupon system and the associated command area development scheme. Its governance structure is democratic and participatory. The project has several environmental enhancement programmes such as water conservation, homestead and social forestry, promotion of integrated pest control, and farmers' training. In addition, it has adopted an integrated planning approach that incorporates extending rural electrification, building rural infrastructure and an array of other support programmes. As a result, the BMDP has emerged as a model of sustainable groundwater-based rural development initiative in Bangladesh.

The extent of virtual water trade and its significance for the food security of Bangladesh have been examined in the light of political and socio-economic considerations that govern the food grain trade between Bangladesh and India. It has been shown that while there are no physical constraints preventing such a trade, prevailing political relations, market conditions, agricultural and food policies, the state of the economies and climatic conditions may play important roles in determining the extent of trade. In the context of rapid population growth and potential future shortage of cultivable land and irrigation water in the dry season, the paper suggests that food security may be redefined as “food self-reliance” instead of “food self-sufficiency”.

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