Developing countries employ tax incentives in the hope of attracting investors, but questions remain on the effects of these policies. Asking whether tax incentives undermine or facilitate development, this paper investigates tax rates and tax holidays in terms of both economic and social impacts in developing countries 1985-2014 in the largest panel data set ever deployed for this purpose. The collection of new data results in three major contributions to the existing literature. First, the analysis shows that the use of tax holidays has increased over the last decade throughout all four regions surveyed: Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Second, the analysis finds that the effect of tax holidays on FDI is negligible and decreasing, and importantly, that it does not translate into neither real capital accumulation nor economic growth. Third, the paper then investigates how the revenue losses from tax incentives can mean real differences for human development by analyzing the effect on tax revenues, spending, health and education outcomes. The paper concludes that tax holidays are negatively correlated with tax revenues, and as revenues decrease, the spending on education decreases. This has real effects, as evidenced by a significant negative correlation with enrollment in primary education. The analysis concludes that tax holidays overall have more negative than positive impacts on sustainable development.

We estimate the revenue implications of a Destination Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) for 80 countries. On a global average, DBCFT revenues under unchanged tax rates would remain similar to the existing corporate income tax (CIT) revenue, but with sizable redistribution of revenue across countries. Countries are more likely to gain revenue if they have trade deficits, are not reliant on the resource sector, and/or-perhaps surprisingly-are developing economies. DBCFT revenues tend to be more volatile than CIT revenues. Moreover, we consider the revenue losses resulting from spillovers in case of unilateral implementation of a DBCFT. Results suggest that these spillover effects are sizeable if the adopting country is large and globally integrated. These spillovers generate strong revenue-based incentives for many-but not all-other countries to follow the DBCFT adoption. JEL Classification Numbers: H25, H87.

We estimate the revenue implications of a Destination Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) for 80 countries. On a global average, DBCFT revenues under unchanged tax rates would remain similar to the existing corporate income tax (CIT) revenue, but with sizable redistribution of revenue across countries. Countries are more likely to gain revenue if they have trade deficits, are not reliant on the resource sector, and/or-perhaps surprisingly-are developing economies. DBCFT revenues tend to be more volatile than CIT revenues. Moreover, we consider the revenue losses resulting from spillovers in case of unilateral implementation of a DBCFT. Results suggest that these spillover effects are sizeable if the adopting country is large and globally integrated. These spillovers generate strong revenue-based incentives for many-but not all-other countries to follow the DBCFT adoption.

We estimate the revenue implications of a Destination Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) for 80 countries. On a global average, DBCFT revenues under unchanged tax rates would remain similar to the existing corporate income tax (CIT) revenue, but with sizable redistribution of revenue across countries. Countries are more likely to gain revenue if they have trade deficits, are not reliant on the resource sector, and/or-perhaps surprisingly-are developing economies. DBCFT revenues tend to be more volatile than CIT revenues. Moreover, we consider the revenue losses resulting from spillovers in case of unilateral implementation of a DBCFT. Results suggest that these spillover effects are sizeable if the adopting country is large and globally integrated. These spillovers generate strong revenue-based incentives for many-but not all-other countries to follow the DBCFT adoption.

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