We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr−1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr−1 MWEG−1 to 1000 Myr−1 MWEG−1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO–Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10−4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron–star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO–Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), associated with the collapse of massive stars or the collisions of compact objects, are the most luminous events in our universe. However, there is still much to learn about the nature of the relativistic jets launched from the central engines of these objects. We examine how jet structure-that is, the energy and velocity distribution as a function of angle-affects observed GRB afterglow light curves. Using the package afterglowpy, we compute light curves arising from an array of possible jet structures, and present the suite of models that can fit the coincident electromagnetic observations of GW190814 (which is likely due to a background AGN). Our work emphasizes not only the need for broadband spectral and timing data to distinguish among jet structure models, but also the necessity for high resolution radio follow-up to help resolve background sources that may mimic a GRB afterglow.

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of 1.0 × 10 −21 . It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203 000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1σ. The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410 These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger.

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