No abstract

The main focus of the study was to analyze trends and variability of wheat crop in Pakistan. Semi-log trend model was used to find trends and growth rate in area, yield and production of wheat crop whereas the variability was measured by Cuddy-Della Valle index of variability. The findings of the study illustrate that wheat area in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan was increased over the time whereas cultivated area of wheat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was marginally decreased during 1981-85 to 2011-15. The results show that there was substantial increase in wheat yield and production in all four provinces of Pakistan. The increase in wheat yield may due to the adoption of new varieties of wheat in the country over the time. It was also concluded from the results that area and yield of wheat in Baluchistan recorded the highest degree of variability whereas in Punjab province area and yield of wheat crop were noticed the lowest degree of variability. Similarly, the maximum variability in wheat production was recorded for Baluchistan province followed by Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab. Mostly the variability in wheat production was due to the variability in wheat area and their yield.

The present study focuses on examining the genetic diversity in 104 accessions of rapeseed and mustard germplasm gathered from different regions of Pakistan. Correlation studies revealed positive correlation of yield component with morphological characters at 5% and 1% level of significance Cluster analysis divided the accessions into five major clusters I, II, III, IV and V. These diverse the germplasm are appropriate for planning of hybridization of programs.

Twenty six yellow maize hybrids on the basis of stability analysis were evaluated in National Uniform Maize Hybrid Yield Trials conducted across eight diversified environments of Pakistan. Combined analysis of variance based AMMI analysis shown highly significant differences for environments, genotypes and their interactions. The environments explained about 78 percent of the total yield variation followed by genotype by environment interaction. Environment was the main aspect that influences the performance of maize yield in study area. The first two interaction principal component axes (IPCA1 and IPCA2) explained about 63 percent of the grain yield variation due to genotype and genotype by environment interaction (GGE). The GGE biplot analysis shown that entry-2 (Mex-YLHY2) was the most stable hybrid and can be considered as adaptable to all the environments.

The present paper was designed to forecast wheat production for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-2020 respectively by using time series data from 1971-72 to 2016-17 with best selected time series models. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential, S-Curve, Double Exponential Smoothing, Single exponential smoothing, Moving average and ARIMA were estimated for wheat production. The results showed a mix trend in production of wheat for selected time period. ARIMA (2,1,2) was found best one keeping in view close forecasts with actual reported wheat production. So the preference inclined towards the ARIMA (2,1,2) than quadratic to forecasts of wheat production.