Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an emerging infection causing a widely spread pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The current COVID-2019 pandemic is prompting fear of falling sick, dying, helplessness and stigma, urgent and timely understanding of mental health status is needed to help the community. Our investigation designed to survey the general population in Saudi Arabia to assess the degree of psychological impact during the pandemic. Methods During the early stage of the outbreak, we conducted an online-based survey using a snowballing sample technique. The surveys collected data about several aspects of participant sociodemographic, knowledge, concerns, psychological impact, and mental health status. We assessed the psychological impact and mental health status using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-21). Results Our survey recruited 1160 respondents of the general public of Saudi Arabia. Of them, 23.6% reported moderate or severe psychological impact of the outbreak, 28.3%,24%, and 22.3% reported moderate to severe depressive, anxiety, and stress symptoms, respectively. Females reported IES-R (B: 5.46, 95% CI: 3.61 to 7.31) and DASS subscales B coefficient ranged from 1.65 to 2.63, along with high-school students, working in the medical field, and poor self-reported health status was significantly associated with a high level of IES-R and DASS scales ( p < .05). Experiencing breathing difficulty and dizziness showed a stronger association with higher IES-R and DASS subscales than other somatic symptoms (e.g., headache and fever);( p < .001). Respondents who practiced specific preventative measures (e.g., hand washing, social distancing) demonstrated a protective effect against stress, anxiety, and depression symptoms. Social distancing appeared to be protective on stress and anxiety subscales (B: -1.49, 95% CI: −2.79 to −0.19),(B: -1.53, 95% CI: −2.50 to −0.57),respectively; and hand hygiene on depression subscale (B: -2.43, 95% CI: −4.44 to −0.42). Conclusion Throughout the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia, the results showed that nearly one-fourth of the sampled general population experienced moderate to severe psychological impact. Following specific precautionary measures appeared to have a protective effect on the individual's mental health. Our findings can be used to construct psychological interventions directed toward vulnerable populations and to implement public mental health strategies in the early stages of the outbreak.

No abstract

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre -including this research content -immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

Epidemiological models have been used extensively to predict disease spread in large populations. Among these models, Susceptible Infectious Exposed Recovered (SEIR) is considered to be a suitable model for COVID-19 spread predictions. However, SEIR in its classical form is unable to quantify the impact of lockdowns. In this work, we introduce a variable in the SEIR system of equations to study the impact of various degrees of social distancing on the spread of the disease. As a case study, we apply our modified SEIR model on the initial spread data available (till April 9, 2020) for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Our analysis shows that with no lockdown around 2.1 million people might get infected during the peak of spread around 2 months from the date the lockdown was first enforced in KSA (March 25th). On the other hand, with the Kingdom's current strategy of partial lockdowns, the predicted number of infections can be lowered to 0.4 million by September 2020. We further demonstrate that with a stricter level of lockdowns, the COVID-19 curve can be effectively flattened in KSA.

No abstract