We propose a flexible method of extending a study based on conditional power. The possibility for extension when the p value at the planned end is small but not statistically significant is built in to the design of the study. The significance of the treatment difference at the planned end is used to determine the number of additional observations needed and the critical value necessary for use after accruing those additional observations. It may therefore be thought of as a two-stage procedure. Even though the observed treatment difference at stage 1 is used to make decisions, the Type I error rate is protected.
The use of the proposed common end point definitions will facilitate interpretation of trial outcomes. This approach may be adopted to develop standard outcome definitions for use in trials involving other cancer sites.
Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy-candidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy (APECED) is a rare primary immunodeficiency disorder typically caused by homozygous AIRE mutations. It classically presents with chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis and autoimmunity that primarily targets endocrine tissues; hypoparathyroidism and adrenal insufficiency are most common. Developing any two of these classic triad manifestations establishes the diagnosis. Although widely recognized in Europe, where nonendocrine autoimmune manifestations are uncommon, APECED is less defined in patients from the Western Hemisphere. We enrolled 35 consecutive American APECED patients (33 from the US) in a prospective observational natural history study and systematically examined their genetic, clinical, autoantibody, and immunological characteristics. Most patients were compound heterozygous; the most common AIRE mutation was c.967_979del13. All but one patient had anti–IFN-ω autoantibodies, including 4 of 5 patients without biallelic AIRE mutations. Urticarial eruption, hepatitis, gastritis, intestinal dysfunction, pneumonitis, and Sjögren’s-like syndrome, uncommon entities in European APECED cohorts, affected 40%–80% of American cases. Development of a classic diagnostic dyad was delayed at mean 7.38 years. Eighty percent of patients developed a median of 3 non-triad manifestations before a diagnostic dyad. Only 20% of patients had their first two manifestations among the classic triad. Urticarial eruption, intestinal dysfunction, and enamel hypoplasia were prominent among early manifestations. Patients exhibited expanded peripheral CD4+ T cells and CD21loCD38lo B lymphocytes. In summary, American APECED patients develop a diverse syndrome, with dramatic enrichment in organ-specific nonendocrine manifestations starting early in life, compared with European patients. Incorporation of these new manifestations into American diagnostic criteria would accelerate diagnosis by approximately 4 years and potentially prevent life-threatening endocrine complications.
Future progress in improving cancer therapy can be expedited by better prioritization of new treatments for phase III evaluation. Historically, phase II trials have been key components in the prioritization process. There has been a long-standing interest in using phase II trials with randomization against a standard-treatment control arm or an additional experimental arm to provide greater assurance than afforded by comparison to historic controls that the new agent or regimen is promising and warrants further evaluation. Relevant trial designs that have been developed and utilized include phase II selection designs, randomized phase II designs that include a reference standard-treatment control arm, and phase II/III designs. We present our own explorations into the possibilities of developing "phase II screening trials," in which preliminary and nondefinitive randomized comparisons of experimental regimens to standard treatments are made (preferably using an intermediate end point) by carefully adjusting the false-positive error rates (alpha or type I error) and false-negative error rates (beta or type II error), so that the targeted treatment benefit may be appropriate while the sample size remains restricted. If the ability to conduct a definitive phase III trial can be protected, and if investigators feel that by judicious choice of false-positive probability and false-negative probability and magnitude of targeted treatment effect they can appropriately balance the conflicting demands of screening out useless regimens versus reliably detecting useful ones, the phase II screening trial design may be appropriate to apply.
Short-term treatment with bFGF enhanced collateral development without increasing neointimal accumulation at sites of vascular injury. Although VEGF did not increase collateral development as administered in this study, it significantly exacerbated neointimal accumulation. These data provide support for the clinical investigation of bFGF in selected patients with ischemic heart disease.
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