18Canine-rabies was endemic pre-urbanisation, yet little is known about how it persists in small 19 populations of dogs typically seen in rural and remote regions. Our objectives were to simulate 20 rabies outbreaks in such populations (50-90 dogs) using a network-based model, and 21 investigate the influence of rabies-induced behavioural changes. 22Such changes -increased bite frequency and either roaming or paralysis that increased the 23 number or duration of contacts, respectively -were essential for disease propagation. Spread 24 occurred in approximately 50% of model simulations and in these, very low case rates (2.0-2.6 25 cases/month) over long durations (95% range 20-473 days) were predicted. Consequently, 26 disease detection is a challenge, risking human infection and spread to other communities via 27 dog movements. Even with 70% pre-emptive vaccination, spread occurred in >30% of model 28 simulations (in these, median case rate was 1.5/month with 95% range of 15-275 days 29 duration). 30We conclude that the social disruption caused by rabies-induced behavioural change is the key to 31 explaining how rabies persists in small populations of dogs. We predict that vaccination of 32 substantially greater than the recommended 70% of dog populations is required to prevent rabies 33 emergence in currently free rural areas. 34 35

In this study, we investigated the occurrence of direct and indirect infectious disease transmission pathways between pig farms in Switzerland, as well as their specific relevance for the spread of African swine fever (ASF), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), and enzootic pneumonia (EP). Data were collected using an adapted Mental Models Approach, involving initial interviews with experts in the field of pig health and logistics, qualitative interviews with pig farmers, and a final expert workshop, during which all identified pathways were graded by their frequency of occurrence, their likelihood of spread of the three diseases of interest, and their overall relevance considering both parameters. As many as 24 disease pathways were identified in four areas: pig trade, farmer encounters, external collaborators, and environmental or other pathways. Two thirds of the pathways occurred with fair-to-high frequency. While both direct and indirect pig trade transmission routes were highly relevant for the spread of the three pathogens, pathways from the remaining areas were especially important for PRRS due to higher spread potential via aerosols and fomites. In addition, we identified factors modifying the relevance of disease pathways, such as farm production type and affiliation to trader companies. During the qualitative interviews, we found varying levels of risk perception among farmers concerning some of the pathways, which affected adherence to biosecurity measures and were often linked to the degree of trust that farmers had towards their colleagues and external collaborators. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating indirect disease pathways in existing surveillance and control strategies, and in disease modelling efforts. We also propose that biosecurity trainings aimed at professionals and risk communication campaigns targeting farmers should be considered to mitigate the risk of disease spread through the identified pathways.

In this study, we investigated the occurrence of direct and indirect infectious disease transmission pathways among pig farms in Switzerland, as well as their specific relevance for the spread of African swine fever, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), and enzootic pneumonia. Data were collected using an adapted mental models approach, involving initial interviews with experts in the field of pig health and logistics, semi-structured interviews with pig farmers, and a final expert workshop, during which all identified pathways were graded by their predicted frequency of occurrence, their likelihood of spread of the three diseases of interest, and their overall relevance considering both parameters. As many as 24 disease pathways were identified in four areas: pig trade, farmer encounters, external collaborators, and environmental or other pathways. Two thirds of the pathways were expected to occur with moderate-to-high frequency. While both direct and indirect pig trade transmission routes were highly relevant for the spread of the three pathogens, pathways from the remaining areas were especially important for PRRS due to higher spread potential via aerosols and fomites. In addition, we identified factors modifying the relevance of disease pathways, such as farm production type and affiliation with trader companies. During the interviews, we found varying levels of risk perception among farmers concerning some of the pathways, which affected adherence to biosecurity measures and were often linked to the degree of trust that farmers had towards their colleagues and external collaborators. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating indirect disease pathways into existing surveillance and control strategies and in disease modelling efforts. We also propose that biosecurity training aimed at professionals and risk communication campaigns targeting farmers should be considered to mitigate the risk of disease spread through the identified pathways.