Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used five years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure, temporal variation, and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or collapse of standing dead trees. Treefalls accounted for 77 % of the total area and 60 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2, and best fit by a Weibull function overall. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though windspeeds were lower in the wet season.  The strongest correlate of temporal variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of 1-hour rainfall events above the 99.4th percentile (here 35.7 mm hour−1, r = 0.67). We hypothesize that extreme high rainfall is associated with both saturated soils, increasing risk of uprooting, and with gusts having high horizontal and vertical windspeeds that increase stresses on tree crowns. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates over large spatial scales at fine temporal and spatial resolution, thereby enabling strong tests of linkages to drivers. Future studies should include high frequency measurements of vertical and horizontal windspeeds and soil moisture to better capture proximate drivers, and incorporate additional image analyses to quantify standing dead trees in addition to treefalls.

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Common-garden trials of forest trees provide phenotype data used to assess growth and local adaptation; this information is foundational to tree breeding programs, genecology, and gene conservation. As jurisdictions consider assisted migration strategies to match populations to suitable climates, in situ progeny and provenance trials provide experimental evidence of adaptive responses to climate change. We used drone technology, multispectral imaging, and digital aerial photogrammetry to quantify spectral traits related to stress, photosynthesis, and carotenoids, and structural traits describing crown height, size, and complexity at six climatically disparate common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca) in western Canada. Through principal component analysis, we identified key components of climate related to temperature, moisture, and elevational gradients. Phenotypic clines in remotely sensed traits were analyzed as trait correlations with provenance climate transfer distances along principal components (PCs). We used traits showing clinal variation to model best linear unbiased predictions for tree height (R 2 = .98-.99, root mean square error [RMSE] = 0.06-0.10 m) and diameter at breast height (DBH, R 2 = .71-.97, RMSE = 2.57-3.80 mm) and generated multivariate climate transfer functions with the model predictions. Significant (p < .05) clines were present for spectral traits at all sites along all PCs. Spectral traits showed stronger clinal variation than structural traits along temperature and elevational gradients and along moisture gradients at wet, coastal sites, but not at dry, interior sites. Spectral traits may capture patterns of local adaptation to temperature and montane growing seasons which are distinct from moisture-limited patterns in stem growth. This work demonstrates that multispectral indices improve the assessment of local adaptation and that spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing produce reliable proxies for groundmeasured height and DBH. This phenotyping framework contributes to the analysis of common-garden trials towards a mechanistic understanding of local adaptation to climate.

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is explained by rainfall: results from five years of monthly drone data for a 50-ha plot Text S1, Tables S1-S3, and Figures S1-S8.