COVID-19's impact has surpassed from personal and global health to our social life. In terms of digital presence, it is speculated that during pandemic, there has been a significant rise in cyberbullying. In this paper, we have examined the hypothesis of whether cyberbullying and reporting of such incidents have increased in recent times. To evaluate the speculations, we collected cyberbullying related public tweets (N = 454, 046) posted between January 1 st , 2020 -June 7 t h , 2020. A simple visual frequentist analysis ignores serial correlation and does not depict changepoints as such. To address correlation and a relatively small number of time points, Bayesian estimation of the trends is proposed for the collected data via an autoregressive Poisson model. We show that this new Bayesian method detailed in this paper can clearly show the upward trend on cyberbullying-related tweets since mid-March 2020. However, this evidence itself does not signify a rise in cyberbullying but shows a correlation of the crisis with the discussion of such incidents by individuals. Our work emphasizes a critical issue of cyberbullying and how a global crisis impacts social media abuse and provides a trend analysis model that can be utilized for social media data analysis in general.
CCS CONCEPTS• Security and privacy → Human and societal aspects of security and privacy; Social aspects of security and privacy; Privacy protections.
Covid-19 vaccine prioritization is key if the initial supply of the vaccine is limited. A reasonable policy will surely prioritize populations facing high risk of severe illness in high-exposure occupations. The challenge is deciding between high-risk populations in low-exposure occupations and those that are young and healthy but work in high-exposure occupations. We estimate occupation-based infection risks and use age-based infection fatality rates in a model to assign priorities over populations with different occupations and ages. Among others, we find that 50 year-old food-processing workers and 60 year-old financial advisors are equally prioritized. Our model suggests a vaccine distribution that emphasizes age-based mortality risk more than occupation-based exposure risk. Designating some occupations as essential does not affect the optimal vaccine allocation, unless a stay-at-home order is also in effect. Even with vaccines allocated optimally, 1.37% of the employed workforce is still expected to be infected with the virus until the vaccine becomes widely available, provided the vaccine is 50% effective and assuming a supply of 60mil doses.
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