Advancing production from the Groningen gas field to full depletion generates substantial, field-scale deformation, and surface subsidence. Quantifying associated risk requires understanding physical processes in the subsurface, in particular those related to deformation of the Permian sandstone reservoir. Here, we report the results of a large experimental study, using fresh core material taken from the center of the field. By subjecting the material to depletion and slight unloading, complemented with a range of rock property measurements, we determine what rock physical properties control production-induced compaction in the material. Our results show that, although a large part of the deformation can be explained by classical linear poroelasticity, the contribution of inelastic (permanent) deformation is also significant. In fact, it increases with progressing pressure depletion, i.e. with increasing production. Utilizing univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we explain the additional inelastic deformation by direct effects of porosity, packing, and mineral composition. These proxies are in turn related to the depositional setting of the Permian reservoir. Our findings suggest that field-scale subsidence may not only be related to the often-used rock porosity, but also to packing, and composition, hence the local depositional environment. This motivates alternative assessments of human-induced mechanical effects in sedimentary systems.

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