Background Biological invasions rank among the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. Correlative ecological niche modeling is among the most frequently used tools with which to estimate potential distributions of invasive species. However, when areas accessible to the species across its native distribution do not represent the full spectrum of environmental conditions that the species can tolerate, correlative studies often underestimate fundamental niches. Methods Here, we explore the utility of supraspecific modeling units to improve the predictive ability of models focused on biological invasions. Taking into account phylogenetic relationships in correlative ecological niche models, we studied the invasion patterns of three species (Aedes aegypti, Pterois volitans and Oreochromis mossambicus). Results Use of supraspecific modeling units improved the predictive ability of correlative niche models in anticipating potential distributions of three invasive species. We demonstrated that integrating data on closely related species allowed a more complete characterization of fundamental niches. This approach could be used to model species with invasive potential but that have not yet invaded new regions.

Correlative estimates of fundamental niches are gaining momentum as an alternative to predict species’ abundances, particularly via the abundant niche-centroid hypothesis (an expected inverse relationship between species’ abundance variation across its range and the distance to the geometric centroid of its multidimensional ecological niche). The main goal of this review is to recapitulate what has been done, where we are now, and where should we move towards in regards to this hypothesis. Despite evidence in support of the abundance-distance to niche centroid relationship, its usefulness has been highly debated, although with little consideration of the underlying theory regarding the circumstances that might break down the relationship. We address some key points about the conditions needed to test the hypothesis in correlative studies, specifically in relation to nichecharacterization and configurations of the Biotic-Abiotic-Mobility (BAM) framework to illustrate the problem of unfilled niches. Using a created supraspecific modeling unit, we show that species for which only a portion of their fundamental niche is represented in their area of historical accessibility (M)—i.e., when the environmental equilibrium condition is violated—it is impossible to characterize their true niche centroid. Therefore, we strongly recommend to analyze this assumption prior toassess the abundant niche-centroid hypothesis. Finally, we discuss the potential of using modeling units above the species level for cases in which environmental conditions associated with species’ occurrences may not be sufficient to fully characterize their fundamental niches.

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Knowledge about the dynamics of regional diversity patterns is a foundation on which measures aimed to protect diversity dimensions in the light of climate change can be constructed. Here, we describe taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity patterns of amphibians in the Yucatan Peninsula and their representation in the current protected area system. We stacked current and future potential distribution models to estimate taxonomic diversity and, based on the most recent amphibian phylogeny and nine functional traits, we measured phylogenetic and functional diversity. Independent phylogenetic and functional metrics were obtained by applying null models that allowed us to identify the presumably signature mechanisms underlying assemblage formation. We evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in protecting diversity dimensions across scenarios. We found phylogenetic and functional clustering as a result of environmental filters that have allowed only recently diverged species with converged functional traits to establish. Nevertheless, random assemblages are more widespread possibly due to the opposite directions in which competition and environmental filtering are acting. Overall, a decrease in all diversity dimensions is projected under future climate change scenarios compared with the current time. None of the protected areas evaluated were effective in protecting diversity dimensions, stressing the need to complete the existing protected areas network.