Background: The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. Results: The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. Conclusions: We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

Las especies exóticas invasoras son actualmente un tema de interés para los organismos de gestión medioambiental y los medios de comunicación, debido a los problemas socioeconómicos y medioambientales que causan. La cotorra argentina, originaria de Sudamérica y establecida actualmente como invasora en América del Norte, Asia, África y Europa Occidental, es un claro ejemplo de ello, sobre todo en algunas ciudades donde las poblaciones crecen rápidamente y su distribución se amplía de manera continua. El primer registro de cotorra argentina en España tuvo lugar en 1975 y desde entonces la especie ha expandido su área de distribución por amplias zonas del país, especialmente en las grandes ciudades y sus alrededores. Málaga cuenta con una de las mayores poblaciones de España donde, a falta de la puesta en práctica de medidas de control, la especie sigue aumentando en efectivos. En este estudio documentamos como una población llega a alcanzar su capacidad de carga, lo que favorece la dispersión de la especie a las áreas circundantes. Estudiar las poblaciones de la especie a escala local nos ayuda a estimar el número de cotorras que puede soportar una zona determinada y también a predecir de un modo más preciso la futura ocupación de aquellas zonas que son favorables para la especie. Esto permitiría evitar el asentamiento de ejemplares en zonas desocupadas y ayudaría a mitigar posibles impactos ambientales y conflictos con el ser humano.

Invasive exotic species are currently a topic of interest for environmental management agencies and the media. This is due to the socio-economic and environmental problems that they are causing or may cause. The Monk Parakeet is a clear example of this, especially in some large cities, where populations are growing quickly, and their distribution continues to expand. In our study, we focused on a population that has been closely monitored during the last 25 years to understand its growth and change on a local scale to determine the maximum sustainable population size in the invaded area and to check when this population began to act as a source of new breeding colonies to adjacent areas. The first breeding of the species occurred in 2002, and from then, the average growth rate (r) of the population was 0.191 until 2016, when it stabilized and declined slightly (r = −0.043). The maximum growth rate occurred during the years 2002 and 2007 and was 0.314. The results obtained give us information about the carrying capacity of the study area, allowing us to explain the dispersal process of the species to neighbouring areas, with populations that have reached maximum size serving as sources of individuals dispersing to suitable areas. In our study area, the species shows a strong preference for building its nests in palm trees and electric utility structures. Our study’s local focus on studying the population dynamics of an invasive species may allow us to understand the increased range of the species on a larger scale, which is necessary in order to be able to design appropriate and effective management strategies.

Background The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. Results The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. Conclusions We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.