Natural regeneration in forest management, which relies on artificial planting, is considered a desirable alternative to reforestation. However, there are large uncertainties regarding the natural regeneration processes, such as seed production, seed dispersal, and seedling establishment. Among these processes, seed dispersal by wind must be modeled accurately to minimize the risks of natural regeneration. This study aimed to (1) review the main mechanisms of seed dispersal models, their characteristics, and their applications and (2) suggest prospects for seed dispersal models to increase the predictability of natural regeneration. With improving computing and observation systems, the modeling technique for seed dispersal by wind has continued to progress steadily from a simple empirical model to the Eulerian-Lagrangian model. Mechanistic modeling approaches with a dispersal kernel have been widely used and have attempted to be directly incorporated into spatial models. Despite the rapid development of various wind-dispersal models, only a few studies have considered their application in natural regeneration. We identified the potential attributes of seed dispersal modeling that cause high uncertainties and poor simulation results in natural regeneration scenarios: topography, pre-processing of wind data, and various inherent complexities in seed dispersal processes. We suggest that seed dispersal models can be further improved by incorporating (1) seed abscission mechanisms by wind, (2) spatiotemporally complex wind environments, (3) collisions with the canopy or ground during seed flight, and (4) secondary dispersal, long-distance dispersal, and seed predation. Interdisciplinary research linking climatology, biophysics, and forestry would help improve the prediction of seed dispersal and its impact on natural regeneration.

Background: To investigate the trends of succession occurring at the Pinus thunbergii forests on the lowlands of Jeju Island, we quantified the species compositions and the importance values by vegetation layers of Braun-Blanquet method on the Pinus thunbergii forests. We used multivariate analysis technique to know the correlations between the vegetation group types and the location environmental factors; we used the location environment factors such as altitudes above sea level, tidal winds (distance from the coast), annual average temperatures, and forest gaps to know the vegetation distribution patterns. Results: According to the results on the lowland of Jeju Island, the understory vegetation of the lowland Pinus thunbergii forests was dominated by tall evergreen broad-leaved trees such as Machilus thunbergii, Neolitsea sericea, and Cinnamomum japonicum showing a vegetation group structure of the mid-succession, and the distribution patterns of vegetation were determined by the altitudes above sea level, the tidal winds on the distance from the coast, the annual average temperatures, and the forest gaps. We could discriminate the secondary succession characteristics of the Pinus thunbergii forests on the lowland and highland of Jeju Island of South Korea. Conclusions:In the lowland of Jeju Island, the secondary succession will progress to the form of Pinus thunbergii (early successional species)→Machilus thunbergii, Litsea japonica (mid-successional species)→Machilus thunbergii (late-successional species) sequence in the temperate areas with strong tidal winds. In the highland of Jeju Island, the succession will progress to the form of Pinus thunbergii (early successional species)→Neolitsea sericea, Eurya japonica (mid-successional species)→Castanopsis sieboldii (late-successional species) sequence in the areas where tidal winds are weak and temperatures are relatively low. However, local differences between lowland and highland of Jeju Island will be caused by the micro-environmental factors resulting from the topographic differences and the supply of tree seeds. From the characteristics of succession study, we could properly predict and manage the Pinus thunbergii forest ecosystem on lowland and highland of Jeju Island.

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