The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2 mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8 mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4 mm and 97.7 mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.

The remotely sensed upper-tropospheric water vapor wind information has been of increasing interest for operational meteorology. A new tracer selection based on a local image anomaly and tracking procedure, itself based on Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, is demonstrated here for the estimation of uppertropospheric water vapor winds both for cloudy and cloud-free regions from water vapor images. The pressure height of the selected water vapor tracers is calculated empirically using a height assignment technique based on a genetic algorithm. The new technique shows encouraging results when compared with Meteosat-5 water vapor winds over the Indian Ocean region. The water vapor winds produced by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) from Meteosat-5 and the present algorithm are compared with collocated radiosonde observations according to Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites guidelines. The proposed algorithm shows better accuracy in terms of mean vector difference, rms vector difference, standard deviation, speed bias, number of collocations, and mean speed and mean direction differences. Also it is found that the sensitivity of the spatial consistency check in the quality indicator is not so significant for the improvement of statistics.

Seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has been attempted for the current year 2011 using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). First, 30 years of model climatology starting from 1981 to 2010 has been generated to capture the variability of ISM over the Indian region using 30 seasonal simulations. The simulated model climatology has been validated with different sets of observed climatology, and it was observed that the simulated climatological rainfall is affected by model bias. Subsequently, a bias correction procedure using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 rainfall has been proposed. The bias-corrected rainfall climatology shows both spatial and temporal variability of ISM satisfactorily. Further, four sets of 10-member ensemble simulations of ISM 2009 and 2010 have been performed in hindcast mode using observed sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence of April SST anomaly, and it has been found that the bias-corrected model rainfall captures the seasonal variability of ISM reasonably well with some discrepancies in these two contrasting monsoon years. With this positive background, the seasonal prediction of ISM

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