As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

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One application of ecological niche modeling is predicting suitable areas for the establishment of invasive species. Herein, I model the fundamental niche of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogen linked to amphibian declines on several continents. Niche models were generated with the Genetic Algorithm of Rule‐Set Prediction using point distribution data of the pathogen and digital maps of environmental variables integrated in a GIS environment. The distribution of regions suitable for B. dendrobatidis in the New World is extensive and includes significant portions of: (1) Sierra Madre Occidental pine‐oak forest; (2) Sonoran and Sinaloan dry forest; (3) Veracruz moist forest; (4) Central America east from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (5) Caribbean Islands; (6) temperate forest in Chile and western Argentina south of latitude 30°S; (7) Andes above 1000 m of altitude in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador; (8) eastern slopes of the Andes in Peru and Bolivia; (9) Brazilian Atlantic forest; (10) Uruguay, Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina; (11) southwestern and Madeira‐Tapajós Amazonian tropical rainforests. The regions with the highest suitability for B. dendrobatidis include habitats that contain the world's most diverse amphibian faunas. Models were built with New World localities, but also showed strong predictability for B. dendrobatidis localities in the Old World. Out of a total of 59 reported Old World localities for B. dendrobatidis, 56 occurred within regions with high predicted suitability. I also present analyses of the environmental envelope of B. dendrobatidis and discuss the implications of the results for the conservation of amphibians in the neotropics.