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Although conflict incidence is likely to be characterized by spatial dependence, the scientific literature on conflicts often neglects the issue thus, implicitly, assuming independence among observations. We argue that such assumption could lead to biased and inconsistent results and we provide an exemplary application to the case of the Mano River Region (MRR) in West Africa. Once we detected the existence of spatial dependence within the distribution of conflict incidence, we introduce spatial econometrics techniques in order to explore diffusion paths of violence within the region. We firstly project on a spatially disaggregated map, built as a regular grid, the conflict occurrence and several georeferenced determinants of civil conflicts. Then, we model spatial dependence through the introduction of spatial autoregressive terms on both dependent and independent variables (SAR and SD Models). Across several models, civil conflict is found steadily clustered in space with significant spill-over effects on contiguous locations. Among other determinants, natural resources – namely diamonds and gold – are confirmed as relevant drivers of conflict diffusion and show neighbouring effects since their location and proximity may affect conflict dynamics.

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Competing interests over land are sharply rising worldwide; they are pushed by several factors, including peri-urban dynamics and growing commercialisation of land. Through a quasiexperimental design based on spatially disaggregated data, the analysis explores the effect of peri-urbanisation processes and large-scale land acquisitions on the risk of organised violence. The results, confirmed throughout several model specifications and robustness checks, provide evidence that peri-urbanisation processes are strongly associated with a higher risk of experiencing events of organised violence. The likelihood of being the arena of such events is even higher when large acquisitions are concluded within peri-urban areas. Urbanisation processes and large land acquisitions should therefore be framed within a comprehensive strategy grounded on inclusive urban planning and land access safeguards, in order to minimise the risk that land access insecurity may be translated into violence.

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