This study compared the adequacy of 5 theories to predict dropping out of high school before the 10th grade. These theories include full mediation by academic achievement and direct effects related to general deviance, deviant affiliation, family socialization, and structural strains. Nested latent variable models were used to test these theories on prospective data from an ethnically diverse urban sample. Poor academic achievement mediated the effect of all independent factors on school dropout, although general deviance, bonding to antisocial peers, and socioeconomic status also retained direct effects on dropping out. Therefore, none of the theories tested was fully adequate to explain the data, although partial support was obtained for each theory. Implications for prevention of early high school dropout are discussed.

Adolescents who join gangs are more frequently involved in serious delinquency compared with those who do not, yet few studies have conducted a prospective examination of risk factors for gang membership. The present study uses longitudinal data to predict gang membership in adolescence from factors measured in childhood. Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, an ethnically diverse, gender-balanced sample (n = 808) followed prospectively from age 10 to 18. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors at ages 10 through 12 predictive of joining a gang between the ages of 13 and 18. Neighborhood, family, school, peer, and individual factors significantly predicted joining a gang in adolescence. Youth exposed to multiple factors were much more likely to join a gang. Implications for the development of gang prevention interventions are discussed.

Bonding to school has been shown to be a protective factor against many problem behaviors. This study examines the effects of intervention during the elementary grades on changes in school bonding from middle school through high school, using hierarchical linear modeling. A full intervention group (Grades 1-6), a late intervention group (interventions in Grades 5 and 6 only), and a control group offered no special intervention were compared. The full intervention group was significantly more bonded to school than the control group at ages 13 and 18. Moreover, the full intervention group showed a curvilinear change in school bonding over time, decreasing to age 16 and then increasing to age 18, whereas bonding to school in both the control and late intervention groups continued to decline from age 13 to age 18. These findings suggest that social development interventions through elementary school can have positive long-term effects on school bonding and demonstrate the importance of long-term follow-up studies of preventive interventions.Advances in prevention in public health (Farquhar, Fortmann, & Flora, 1990) provide a model for prevention of adolescent problem behaviors by focusing on risk and protective factors predictive of these behaviors (Hawkins, Catalano, & Miller, 1992;Mrazek & Haggerty, 1994). Research on the predictors of school dropout, delinquency, drug abuse, teen pregnancy, and violence has shown that many of the same factors predict these different outcomes (Dryfoos, 1990;Resnick, Bearman, & Udry, 1997). One of these factors-bonding to school -is a protective factor against many serious behavior and health problems in adolescence and young adulthood, including school dropout, delinquency, drug abuse, teen pregnancy, violence, and alcohol abuse or dependence (Abbott et al., 1998;Dryfoos, 1990;Guo, Hawkins, Hill, & Abbott, in press;Hawkins, Catalano, & Miller, 1992;Maguin & Loeber, 1996;Mrazek & Haggerty, 1994;Resnick et al., 1997;Rutter, 1985).Recently, Hawkins, Catalano, Kosterman, Abott, and Hill (1999) reported significant longterm effects of the preventive interventions of the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP) during the elementary grades on a variety of serious behavior and health problems at age 18, 6 years after the intervention ended. These effects included reductions in violent delinquency, heavy drinking, lifetime sexual intercourse, multiple sex partners, pregnancy or causing pregnancy, and school misbehavior. The theoretical model guiding the preventive interventions of the SSDP hypothesizes that bonding to school is an important protective factor against health and behavior problems. The interventions tested in the project sought to increase children's bonding to school during the elementary grades. This article first examines whether changes in school bonding during the 6 years following the intervention and levels of school bonding at age 18 were related to the behavioral outcomes observed at age 18. The article next examines whether the preventive intervention du...

Understanding and preventing high school failure is a national priority. Structural strain and general deviance theories attempt to explain late high school failure. The authors tested the hypotheses that general (vs. specific) deviance and academic competence mediate the relationships between structural strain factors (gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status [SES]) and 12th-grade high school failure. Independent variables of structural strain and mediational variables of drug use, sexual involvement, school trouble, delinquency, and academic performance were assessed in a sample of 754 8th graders and used to predict 12th-grade high school dropout and number of missed months of school (reflecting a latent construct of High School Failure) in the 12th grade. High school failure was directly predicted by earlier General Deviance, poor Academic Competence, low Family SES, and tobacco use. All ethnic and gender differences in high school failure were mediated by deviance and academic ability or accounted for by Family SES discrepancies.

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