ABSTWCT:Calving records from 1969 to 1989 from the Roman L. Hruska U.S. Meat Animal Research Center were used to investigate how climatic conditions, in addition to dystocia, age of dam, size of calf, and sex affect calf survival from birth to 1 wk of age. Data were analyzed separately for cows calving with ( n = 11,094) or without ( n = 72,187) dystocia. Neonatal mortality was described by a logit model and parameters were estimated by maximum-likelihood procedures. Calves born to cows with dystocia were five times as likely to die neonatally than calves born without assistance. Of all calves that died, 43.6% were born with difficulty. Of these calves, survival was lowest for those that were small relative to their genetic group, sex, and age of dam. Large calves had markedly increased mortality only when born to 2-yr-old dams. Average ambient temperature and precipitation on day of calving affected survival nonlinearly and the magnitude of the effect depended on age of dam, sex and size of calf, and dystocia incidence. Calves born to 2-yr-old cows were more susceptible to severe weather conditions than calves born to older cows. The negative effect of precipitation on survival increased with decreasing temperature.

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A stochastic dynamic model of reproduction and a deterministic cow-herd economic simulation model were used to evaluate how management decisions and reproductive performance interact to influence net income in a cow-calf operation (1,000 cows) for 1 yr of production. The stochastic model was used to determine herd performance when length of breeding season (45, 70, or 120 d) interacted with three postpartum intervals of anestrus (48, 65, or 90 d) and three conception rates at first service (60, 70, or 80%). Short, moderate, and long postpartum intervals were used to reflect differences in reproductive performance. In addition, replacement heifers were bred beginning either 3 wk ahead of the cow herd or at the same time as the cow herd. Fifty-four simulations were generated. Inputs into the economic model were herd performance, livestock and feed prices, nonfeed costs, and feed requirements for 1 yr of production. Feed requirements were calculated separately for each postpartum interval to reflect three different body condition scores, thin, moderate, and good, to correspond with long, moderate, and short postpartum intervals. Net income was greatest with 70-d breeding seasons when the postpartum interval was short or moderate. When the postpartum interval was long, net income was greatest with 120-d breeding seasons because pregnancy rates, as a result of the long breeding season, were highest and feed costs were lowest for thin cows. Overall, net income was greatest when cows were managed to have postpartum intervals of moderate length. Breeding heifers 3 wk before the cows provided the most economic benefit with long postpartum intervals.

Markov chains were used to estimate the age distribution at equilibrium and average age in herds of beef cattle and the age distribution and average age of culled cows. These estimates are essential in systems simulation and economic analyses of beef production alternatives because the biological input and output from a beef production system depend on the age structure of the cows in the system. Ten sets of data on age-specific probabilities of culling for different reasons were found in the literature and used in simulation of different culling strategies. Three different culling strategies were simulated using these data. In addition to culling on maximum age, culling was either based on health alone, health and reproductive failure in one year (not pregnant) or health and reproductive failure in two consecutive years (not pregnant twice). The average herd age in the data sets reviewed under the actual culling strategies ranged from 4.58 to 6.73 yr and the average age of culled cows ranged from 5.41 to 9.94 yr. Description of the culling process as a Markov chain enables calculations of the age distribution at equilibrium by simple matrix operations, an advantage over the methods presently used. The scarcity of estimated age-specific probabilities of health and reproductive failure points to the need for more population analyses of beef cattle.