Abstract. Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents a well-known hazard in areas proximal to volcanoes (mostly <5 km from the vent). However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from plume margins that extend to medial areas and have the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from plume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and, therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, a new particle sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the hazard zone covered 72 km2 and included some 125 km of paths and roads, as well as 15 buildings. Evacuation on foot to a safe area was estimated at almost 4 h, but this could be reduced to less than 3 h if two shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit areas.

The size distribution of volcanic ash is rarely measured in real time and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) often rely on a default particle size distribution (PSD) to initialise their dispersion models when forecasting the movement of ash clouds. We conducted a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of PSD on model output and consider how best to apply default PSDs in operational dispersion modelling. Compiled grain size data confirm that, when considering particles likely to be in the distal ash cloud (< 125 µm diameter), magma composition and eruption size are the dominant controls on grain size distribution. Constraining the PSD is challenging but we find that the grain size of deposits from large hydromagmatic eruptions remains relatively constant with distance, suggesting that total (whole-deposit) grain size distributions (TGSDs) for these eruptions could be estimated from a few samples. We investigated the sensitivity of modelled ash mass loadings (in the air and on the ground) to input PSDs based on coarse to fine TGSDs from our dataset. We found clear differences between modelled mass loadings and the extent of the plume. Comparing TGSDs based on ground-only and ground-plus-satellite data for the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruption, we found that basing input PSDs on TGSDs from deposits alone (likely missing the finest particles) led to lower modelled peak ash concentrations and a smaller plume.

Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents a well-known hazard in proximal areas.However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from plume margins extending to medial areas with the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from plume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and, therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, 15 a new particle-sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the hazard zone covered 72 km 2 and included some 125 km of paths and roads, and 15 buildings; evacuation on foot to a safe area was estimated at almost 4 hours, but this could be reduced to less than 3 hours if two shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit 20 areas.

Tephra fall can lead to significant additional loading on roofs. Understanding the relevant geomechanical properties of tephra is critical when assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tephra fall and designing buildings to withstand tephra loads. Through analysis of published data and new experimental results on dry tephra (both natural samples from Ascension Island, South Atlantic and synthetic tephra made from crushed aggregates), we discuss the geomechanical properties of tephra relevant to roof loading, which include bulk density, grain size distribution and internal angle of friction. Compiled published data for deposits from 64 global eruptions reveal no clear trend in deposit densities based on magma composition or eruption size. The global data show a wide range of values within single eruptions and between eruptions of similar compositions. Published grain size distributions near to source (≤ 10 km) vary widely but again there are no clear trends relating to magma composition. We used laboratory tests to investigate the internal angle of friction, which influences deposit sliding behaviour. For dry tephra, at the low normal stresses likely to be experienced in roof loads (≤ 35 kPa), we found similar values across all our tests (35.8° - 36.5°) suggesting that any internal sliding will be consistent across a variety of deposits. By considering different magma compositions, densities and grain size distributions, we have provided an envelope of values for deposit parameters relevant to roof loading, in which future eruptions are likely to sit. Finally, we created synthetic tephra (fine- and coarse-grained pumice and scoria) by crushing volcanic aggregates and compared it to samples from Ascension and published data. Our results reveal that synthetic tephra successfully replicated the properties relevant to loading, potentially reducing the need to collect and transport natural samples.