Objectives We aimed to derive and validate a triage tool, based on clinical assessment alone, for predicting adverse outcome in acutely ill adults with suspected COVID-19 infection. Methods We undertook a mixed prospective and retrospective observational cohort study in 70 emergency departments across the United Kingdom (UK). We collected presenting data from 22445 people attending with suspected COVID-19 between 26 March 2020 and 28 May 2020. The primary outcome was death or organ support (respiratory, cardiovascular, or renal) by record review at 30 days. We split the cohort into derivation and validation sets, developed a clinical score based on the coefficients from multivariable analysis using the derivation set, and the estimated discriminant performance using the validation set. Results We analysed 11773 derivation and 9118 validation cases. Multivariable analysis identified that age, sex, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen ratio, performance status, consciousness, history of renal impairment, and respiratory distress were retained in analyses restricted to the ten or fewer predictors. We used findings from multivariable analysis and clinical judgement to develop a score based on the NEWS2 score, age, sex, and performance status. This had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.79–0.81) in the validation cohort and predicted adverse outcome with sensitivity 0.98 (0.97–0.98) and specificity 0.34 (0.34–0.35) for scores above four points. Conclusion A clinical score based on NEWS2, age, sex, and performance status predicts adverse outcome with good discrimination in adults with suspected COVID-19 and can be used to support decision-making in emergency care. Registration ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN28342533, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN28342533

Objective.To examine risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) following spinal surgery and to analyze the associations between a surgeon's years of operating experience and surgical specialty and patients' SSI risk.Design.Case-control study.Setting.A tertiary care facility and a community hospital in Durham, North Carolina.Patients.Each case patient who developed an SSI complicating laminectomy was matched with 2 noninfected control patients by hospital, year of surgery, and National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System risk index score.Results.Forty-one case patients with SSI complicating laminectomy and 82 matched control patients were analyzed. Nonwhite race, diabetes and an elevated body mass index (BMI) were more common among case patients than among control patients. Subjects with a BMI greater than 35 were more likely to undergo a prolonged procedure, compared with case patients who had a BMI of 35 or less. The SSI rate for patients operated on by neurosurgeons was 28%, compared with 43% for patients operated on by orthopedic surgeons (odds ratio [OR], 0.5; P = .12). The number of years of operating experience were not associated with SSI risk. Multivariate analysis revealed diabetes (OR, 4.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-16.3]; P = .04), BMI greater than 35 (OR, 7.1 [95% CI, 1.8-28.3]; P = .005), and laminectomy at a level other than cervical (OR, 6.7 [95% CI, 1.4-33.3]; P = .02) as independent risk factors for SSI following laminectomy.Conclusion.Diabetes, obesity, and laminectomy at a level other than cervical are independent risk factors for SSI following laminectomy. Preoperative weight loss and tight perioperative control of blood glucose levels may reduce the risk of SSI in laminectomy patients.

Background. The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is responsible for a major wave of COVID-19, with record case counts reflecting high transmissibility and escape from prior immunity. Defining the time course of Omicron viral proliferation and clearance is crucial to inform isolation protocols aiming to minimize disease spread. Methods. We obtained longitudinal, quantitative RT-qPCR test results using combined anterior nares and oropharyngeal samples (n = 10,324) collected between July 5th, 2021 and January 10th, 2022 from the National Basketball Association's (NBA) occupational health program. We quantified the fraction of tests with PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values <30, chosen as a proxy for potential infectivity and antigen test positivity, on each day after first detection of suspected and confirmed Omicron infections, stratified by individuals detected under frequent testing protocols and those detected due to symptom onset or concern for contact with an infected individual. We quantified the duration of viral proliferation, clearance rate, and peak viral concentration for individuals with acute Omicron and Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 infections. Results. A total of 97 infections were confirmed or suspected to be from the Omicron variant and 107 from the Delta variant. Of 27 Omicron-infected individuals testing positive ≤1 day after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 52.0% (13/25) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 25.0% (6/24) at day 6, and 13.0% (3/23) on day 7 post detection. Of 70 Omicron-infected individuals detected ≥2 days after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 39.1% (25/64) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 33.3% (21/63) at day 6, and 22.2% (14/63) on day 7 post detection. Overall, Omicron infections featured a mean duration of 9.87 days (95% CI 8.83-10.9) relative to 10.9 days (95% CI 9.41-12.4) for Delta infections. The peak viral RNA based on Ct values was lower for Omicron infections than for Delta infections (Ct 23.3, 95% CI 22.4-24.3 for Omicron; Ct 20.5, 95% CI 19.2-21.8 for Delta) and the clearance phase was shorter for Omicron infections (5.35 days, 95% CI 4.78-6.00 for Omicron; 6.23 days, 95% CI 5.43-7.17 for Delta), though the rate of clearance was similar (3.13 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.75-3.54 for Omicron; 3.15 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.69-3.64 for Delta). Conclusions. While Omicron infections feature lower peak viral RNA and a shorter clearance phase than Delta infections on average, it is unclear to what extent these differences are attributable to more immunity in this largely vaccinated population or intrinsic characteristics of the Omicron variant. Further, these results suggest that Omicron's infectiousness may not be explained by higher viral load measured in the nose and mouth by RT-PCR. The substantial fraction of individuals with Ct values <30 at days 5 of infection, particularly in those detected due to symptom onset or concern for contact with an infected individual, underscores the heterogeneity of the infectious period, with implications for isolation policies.

No abstract