This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometric approach to modeling the global economy using the model E3MG (energy-environment-economy model of the globe), which in turn constitutes one component in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) of the UK Tyndall Centre. The model is simplified to provide a post-Keynesian view of the long-run, with an indicator of technological progress affecting each region's exports and energy use. When technological progress is endogenous in this way, long-run growth in global GDP is partly explained by the model. Average permit prices and tax rates about $430/tC (1995) prices after 2050 are sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm CO 2 after 2100. They also lead to higher economic growth.

This paper describes the development and first results of the "Community Integrated Assessment System" (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the communities of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers' ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth's climate system is provided

Through a dynamic model of energy system change the paper examines the role of innovation in bringing about a low carbon energy system. The processes of innovation and technological substitution are cumulative, dynamic, and highly non-linear processes such that how the energy system evolves in the long term is extraordinarily sensitive to the strength and duration of the initial policies. It is possible, under some policy assumptions, that energy systems would continue to depend on fossil fuels for so long as fossil fuels remain abundant and the least cost resource; and under other assumptions, after allowing for the unavoidable lags associated with investment and the building up of a new capital stock, that fossil fuels would become almost wholly displaced by the non-carbon alternatives. The implication is that the external benefits of innovation, which include the creation of options and the reduction of costs arising directly from innovation itself, and the reduction of environmental damage, are far greater, perhaps by orders of magnitude, than the traditional cost–benefit models used for the analysis of climate change mitigation. The analysis suggests why a focus on discovery and innovation offers a promising way forward for national and international policies on climate change.

Information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure plays a critical role in many aspects of the society. While ICTs contribute to climate-related responses and adaptive practices, much less is known about the impacts that climate change may have on ICT itself. Drawing on knowledge in the literature and findings elicited from industrial workshop conversations and case studies, this paper attempts to provide a review of available evidence of climate impacts on the UK's ICT infrastructure. This research shows that, although ICTs are resilient to climate impacts, in part due to the rapid refresh rate of equipment, ICTs are vulnerable to a number of future climate risks. The criticality of ICTs to other infrastructure sectors implies that any disruption to ICTs could result in multisectoral cascade failures. This paper also explores the potential for strategies to adapt ICTs to be more resilient to extreme weather and changes in climate, discusses some of the opportunities that climate change may offer and identifies some areas for further research.

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