Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

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Instrumental climatological records such as weather stations data of northern areas of Pakistan are not sufficient to assess the forest extreme events reliably. To understand the past climatic variability, tree ring width based climatic reconstruction is the best alternative to trace climate variability that goes back in time. Quercus Incana is the most sensitive species to drought and climatic variation in northern Pakistan. However, very little research quantifies the rate of ongoing climatic changes. A total of 65 tree cores were collected from two sites to understand the radial growth of Q. Incana to extreme drought events. The radial growth is mainly affected by high temperatures during May-July. In addition, radial growth exhibits a positive correlation with February-June precipitation while it is negatively correlated with the September precipitation. The radial growth decrease, particularly in harsh climatic conditions. The reconstructed tree ring record was strongly coherent with the May-June self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and reliable in reconstructing drought variability for the period 1750–2014. During the past 264 years, wet periods were found during 1980–2010, 1812–1836, and 1754–1760, while dry periods were found during 1896–1922, 1864–1876, and 1784–1788. Our reconstruction explains 39.8% of the scPDSI variance. The extreme drought and wet years we arrived at were in close agreement with the drought and wet periods that occurred in northern Pakistan. Wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.2–2.5, 3.3, 3–4, 16.7, 16.8, and 68–78.8 years. Hence it is concluded that deforestation and forest degradation rate increased with extreme drought and wet years. Overall, the variation of drought in northern Pakistan seems to have been affected due to El Nino south oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, or Atlantic multi-decadal oscillations.

Wood anatomy and plant hydraulics play a significant role in understanding species-specific responses and their ability to manage rapid environmental changes. This study used the dendro-anatomical approach to assess the anatomical characteristics and their relation to local climate variability in the boreal coniferous tree species Larix gmelinii (Dahurian larch) and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (Scots pine) at an altitude range of 660 m to 842 m. We measured the xylem anatomical traits (lumen area (LA), cell wall thickness (CWt), cell counts per ring (CN), ring width (RW), and cell sizes in rings) of both species at four different sites Mangui (MG), Wuerqihan (WEQH), Moredagha (MEDG) and Alihe (ALH) and investigated their relationship with temperature and precipitation of those sites along a latitude gradient. Results showed that all chronologies have strong summer temperature correlations. LA extremes were mostly associated with climatic variation than CWt and RWt. MEDG site species showed an inverse correlation in different growing seasons. The correlation coefficient with temperature indicated significant variations in the May-September months at MG, WEQH, and ALH sites. These results suggest that climatic seasonality changes in the selected sites positively affect hydraulic efficiency (increase in the diameter of the earlywood cells) and the width of the latewood produced in P. sylvestris. In contrast, L. gmelinii showed the opposite response to warm temperatures. It is concluded that xylem anatomical responses of L. gmelinii and P. sylvestris showed varied responses to different climatic factors at different sites. These differences between the two species responses to climate are due to the change of site condition on a large spatial and temporal scale.