Pesticide impacts are usually discussed in the context of applied amounts while disregarding the large but environmentally relevant variations in substance-specific toxicity. Here, we systemically interpret changes in the use of 381 pesticides over 25 years by considering 1591 substance-specific acute toxicity threshold values for eight nontarget species groups. We find that the toxicity of applied insecticides to aquatic invertebrates and pollinators has increased considerably—in sharp contrast to the applied amount—and that this increase has been driven by highly toxic pyrethroids and neonicotinoids, respectively. We also report increasing applied toxicity to aquatic invertebrates and pollinators in genetically modified (GM) corn and to terrestrial plants in herbicide-tolerant soybeans since approximately 2010. Our results challenge the claims of a decrease in the environmental impacts of pesticide use.

Understanding social-ecological system dynamics is a major research priority for sustainable management of landscapes, ecosystems and resources. But the lack of multi-decadal records represents an important gap in information that hinders the development of the research agenda. Without improved information on the long-term and complex interactions between causal factors and responses, it will be difficult to answer key questions about trends, rates of change, tipping points, safe operating spaces and pre-impact conditions. Where available longterm monitored records are too short or lacking, palaeoenvironmental sciences may provide

Agricultural insecticides occur in U.S. surface waters, yet our knowledge of their current and potential future large-scale risks for biodiversity is restricted. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; n = 5817; 1962–2017) in U.S. surface waters and sediments reported in 259 peer-reviewed scientific studies for 32 important insecticide compounds and their degradation products (n = 6). To assess overall and substance-specific ecological risks and future implications, MICs were compared with official U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulatory threshold levels (RTLs) and insecticide use trends. Approximately half of the MICs, i.e., 49.4% (at 69.7% of the 644 sites covered), exceeded their RTLs, indicating substantial risks to the integrity of U.S. aquatic ecosystems and potential shortcomings of regulatory risk assessment procedures. Overall, pyrethroids had the highest exceedance rate (80.7%; n = 1808), followed by organophosphates and carbamates (42.2%, n = 2618), and organochlorines (33.3%, n = 468). Pronounced increasing use trends were found for neonicotinoids, which exceeded their chronic RTLs, i.e., those of high relevance due to neonicotinoids̀ persistence in surface waters, for 56.8% of MICs (22.2% for acute RTLs). A regression analysis of insecticide use trends, although to be interpreted with care, indicated a future increase in applied amounts of several high risk insecticides such as pyrethroids and neonicotinoids, suggesting elevated prospective risks for U.S. surface waters, biodiversity, and endangered species.

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