Coastal flood risks are rising rapidly. We provide high resolution estimates of the economic value of mangroves forests for flood risk reduction every 20 km worldwide. We develop a probabilistic, processbased valuation of the effects of mangroves on averting damages to people and property. We couple spatially-explicit 2-D hydrodynamic analyses with economic models, and find that mangroves provide flood protection benefits exceeding $US 65 billion per year. If mangroves were lost, 15 million more people would be flooded annually across the world. Some of the nations that receive the greatest economic benefits include the USA, China, India and Mexico. Vietnam, India and Bangladesh receive the greatest benefits in terms of people protected. Many (>45) 20-km coastal stretches particularly those near cities receive more than $US 250 million annually in flood protection benefits from mangroves. These results demonstrate the value of mangroves as natural coastal defenses at global, national and local scales, which can inform incentives for mangrove conservation and restoration in development, climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and insurance. Coastal flooding impacts are increasing due to coastal development, population growth 1 , climate change 2,3 , and habitat loss 4-7. In 2017 alone, overall storm damages were more than $US 170 billion in the North Atlantic 8. However, development choices often neglect flood risks 3,9,10 and there is growing pressure to adopt flood mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce these impacts and economic losses 9,11,12. In many tropical and subtropical regions mangroves reduce waves and storm surges, and serve as a first line of defense against flooding and erosion. These benefits are provided through bottom friction, the cross-shore width of forests, tree density and shape. The aerial roots of a mangroves forest retain sediments, stabilizing the soil of intertidal areas and reducing erosion 13. Roots, trunk and canopy dissipates storm surge 14 and waves 15. Previous studies have shown that mangroves can reduce up to 66% of wave energy in the first 100 m of forest width 15,16. Mangroves can also provide adaptive defenses as they can, under the right conditions, keep pace with sea-level-rise through vertical accretion 17-19. Yet, mangroves have experienced significant losses over the last decades, declining globally from 139,777 km 2 in 2000 to 131,931 km 2 in 2014 20 , with even greater losses before 2000. Most of this loss has happened through the conversion for aquaculture or agriculture and coastal development 21. The loss of these habitats can contribute to increasing coastal risk 22 , particularly in developed areas with great exposure of coastal populations 23,24. Quantifying the value of mangroves as natural coastal defenses is crucial for incentivizing their conservation and restoration for the benefit of nature and people 25. The economic value of mangroves for services that rely on conserving them, such as flood protection, is typically not included within national...
