BackgroundIn clinical practice, a risk prediction model is an effective solitary program to predict prognosis in particular patient groups. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are widely recognized outcome-predicting factors for patients with heart failure (HF).This study derived external validation of a risk score to predict 1-year mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with HF using the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC)program data. We also assessed the effect of adding BNP or NT-proBNP to this risk score model in a Korean HF registry population.Method and resultsWe included 5625 patients from the Korean acute heart failure registry (KorAHF) and excluded those who died in hospital. The MAGGIC constructed a risk score to predict mortality in patients with HF by using 13 routinely available patient characteristics (age, gender, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), HF diagnosed within the last 18 months, current smoker, NYHA class, use of beta blocker, ACEI or ARB, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and EF). We added BNP or NT-proBNP, which are the most important biomarkers, to the MAGGIC risk scoring system in patients with HF. The outcome measure was 1-year mortality. In multivariable analysis, BNP or NT-proBNP independently predicted death. The risk score was significantly varied between alive and dead groups (30.61 ± 6.32 vs. 24.80 ± 6.81, p < 0.001). After the conjoint use of BNP or NT-proBNP and MAGGIC risk score in patients with HF, a significant difference in risk score was noted (31.23 ± 6.46 vs. 25.25 ± 6.96, p < 0.001).The discrimination abilities of the risk score model with and without biomarker showed minimal improvement (C index of 0.734 for MAGGIC risk score and 0.736 for MAGGIC risk score plus BNP or NT-proBNP, p = 0.0502) and the calibration was found good. However, we achieved a significant improvement in net reclassification and integrated discrimination for mortality (NRI of 33.4%,p < 0.0001 and IDI of 0.002, p < 0.0001).ConclusionIn the KorAHF, the MAGGIC project HF risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort. Furthermore, the addition of BNP or NT-proBNPto the MAGGIC risk score was beneficial in predicting more death in hospitalized patients with HF.

BackgroundB-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has prognostic significance in heart failure (HF), and reductions in BNP may predict clinical improvement. However, there are limited data regarding the prognostic value of BNP during short-term follow-up. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between short-term follow-up BNP and mortality after discharge in patients with HF.MethodsWe analyzed 427 patients hospitalized with HF from the Wonju Severance Christian Hospital Heart Failure Registry from April 2011 to December 2013, with a planned follow-up period through February 2016. Of the 427 patients, 240 (mean age, 75 years; 102 males, 42.5%) had BNP measured on admission and within the short-term follow-up period (3 months). We compared all-cause mortality during the clinical follow-up period (median length of follow-up, 709.5 days) according to the median value of BNP on admission (as a baseline value) and over a short-term follow-up period after discharge.ResultsMedian BNP at admission was 816.5 pg/ml, and median follow-up BNP was 369.7 pg/ml. Multivariate analysis revealed a positive association between risk of death and high BNP. High BNP during follow-up was significantly associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality compared to low BNP (P < 0.001). Initial BNP was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality. A multivariate model showed that follow-up BNP and percent change in BNP were independently associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for covariates. Of the 3 BNP measurement strategies, BNP after discharge (IDI of 0.072, P < .0001 and NRI of 0.707, P < .0001) and percent change in BNP (IDI of 0.113, P < .0001 and NRI of 0.782, P < .0001) demonstrated the greatest increase in discrimination and net reclassification for mortality. Unfortunately, we did not find any significant value with initial BNP. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to assess mortality stratified by BNP according to the median value, high median of follow-up BNP and percent change in BNP were associated with significantly higher mortality compared to the below median (log-rank, p < 0.001).ConclusionsShort-term follow-up BNP and percent change in BNP level are significant prognostic factors of all-cause mortality. These values will be clinically useful when evaluating prognosis in hospitalized patients with heart failure.

Background: Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are associated with heart failure and mortality. However, the role of BNP after hospital discharge is not clear. Therefore, we assessed the relationship between short-term follow-up BNP levels and clinical outcomes including all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with AMI after hospital discharge. Methods: From a prospective single-center percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) registry, a total of 442 out of 2157 patients with AMI who had measurements for both initial and follow-up BNP levels within 2 months after discharge were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into 4 groups (low-low, high-low, low-high, and high-high) according to their follow-up log-transformed BNP median values. Results: The median follow-up period was 441 days (interquartile range [IQR], 362-861 days). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that short-term follow-up BNP level was a significant predictor for all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.265; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.455-3.527) and MACE (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.101-1.858) after adjustments for covariates. The initial BNP level did not predict both all-cause mortality and MACE. The group with high initial and high follow-up BNP levels was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (OR, 3.465; 95% CI, 1.122-10.700). Conclusions: Short-term follow-up BNP level after hospital discharge was a powerful prognostic marker for allcause mortality and MACE in patients with AMI. The combination of short-term follow-up BNP level with initial BNP level was a better predictor of all-cause mortality.