The U.S. poultry industry has spent considerable resources to date preparing for an outbreak of avian influenza in this country. This research quantifies the potential effects of two alternative avian influenza scenarios on the poultry industry. In addition, this research looks at effects on other agriculture sectors including the loss of feed demand from an outbreak and the impacts on aggregate measures like farm income and consumer food expenditures. The economic sector model maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is employed for these scenarios.

The relationship between farm‐level milk income over feed cost (IOFC) margin and national margin, profit risk, and terminal stress risk are investigated using data on Wisconsin dairy farms over the period 2000–2017. Results show that farm‐specific IOFC margins were not highly correlated with the national margin, higher farm IOFC margin increased profit level and volatility but decreased downside risk, and farm terminal stress appears unaffected by either the margin or the related payments. These findings suggest that, for sample farms, a policy that targets IOFC margin might reduce downside risk of net farm income.

Fast track article for IS&T International Symposium on Electronic Imaging 2020: Imaging and Multimedia Analytics in a Web and Mobile World proceedings.

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