This study quantitatively measured the operational codes of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres according to the Verbs in Context System (VICS) devised by Walker, Schafer, and Young (1998). Rabin's and Peres's basic propensities regarding the nature and conduct of foreign policy were then compared through analyses of variance, both to each other and across time. Three main trends were found in the results. First, both leaders' conception of their political environment changed over time, from basically conflictual in the 1970s to essentially neutral in the 1990s. Second, the remainder of Rabin's operational code, including a surprisingly strong predisposition to approach politics in a cooperative manner, was generally constant across time. Third, unlike Rabin, several other components of Peres's operational code underwent acute fluctuations, seemingly in response to the perceived different situational context. On the basis of these results and the operational code construct in general, a typology was created that classifies leaders according to their predisposition to pursue either cooperative or conflictual strategies and their level of responsiveness to their political environment.KEY WORDS: operational code; beliefs; Israel; foreign policy decisions.Few people have had a greater impact on Mideast politics in recent decades than Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin. Although both Peres and Rabin have come to be inextricably linked with the Arab-Israeli peace process, they are often viewed as having had different perspectives on how best to achieve peace and how best to respond to changes in their international environment. Related to such interest in their differences, there is debate about how each leader's predispositions toward international politics may have changed over time.To date, no systematic quantitative analysis has focused on whether the popular perceptions of these leaders' underlying foreign policy preferences are indeed accurate. The lack of such research has impaired a full understanding of their

This paper considers Bill Clinton's operational code as reflected in prepared speeches and spontaneous remarks. Differences between the two types of verbal material, their respective differences over time, and their respective variation after key intervening political events were subjected to analysis of variance as well as descriptive analyses. The results suggest that measurements based on spontaneous comments are preferable, particularly in providing sensitive measures of personal predispositions.KEY WORDS: Bill Clinton, operational code, at-a-distance measures, source materialThe overarching question in this paper is: Do substantive differences exist between measurements of leaders' personal characteristics based on spontaneous comments and those based on prepared comments? To investigate this question, we used Bill Clinton as a test case. Measurements of his operational code-his basic foreign policy dispositions-were conducted according to the procedures of the quantitative Verbs in Context System (VICS; Walker, Schafer, & Young, 1998), using both spontaneous and prepared comments as source material. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test for statistical differences between the two sets of measurements and over time. Then, a descriptive analysis judged how well each set of indicators reflected hypothesized changes in the president's predispositions over time, given key intervening international events. MethodThe VICS formulas are designed to measure the foreign policy predispositions of political leaders. Although operational codes are commonly thought of as cognitive constructs, at least one of the VICS indices-the leader's belief in his or

This article investigates whether certain factors pertaining to the process of foreign policy decision making have a measurable, qualitative effect on foreign policy outcomes. The research is grounded in the groupthink literature but incorporates different dimensions of similar underlying notions from other international relations areas as well. Three different types of process factors are investigated: situational factors, such as stress and time constraints; factors associated with the structure of the group; and information processing factors. We test the influence of these factors on two types of outcomes-a decision's effect on national interests and its effect on the level of international conflict. We investigate this link in 31 cases of decision from 1975 through 1993. Scores for the outcome variables are based on survey responses from 21 foreign policy experts. For the process variables, we develop sets of operational definitions and then code each case based on extensive reading of case-study materials. OLS regression models are used to assess the hypotheses. We find that situation variables matter very little in terms of affecting outcomes and quality of information processing. On the other hand, both group structural factors and information processing are significantly related to outcomes in terms of national interests and level of international conflict.Does the quality of the decision-making process significantly affect the outcomes of the decision? Scholars from business schools, public policy programs, social psychology departments, and political science departments have taught for many years the very general proposition that good process is important for achieving better outcomes. But rarely in social science research should we be content with intuitive suggestions. And, surprisingly, very little quantitative empirical work investigates the connection between process and outcome in the area of foreign policy decision making. The locus classicus is Irving Janis's work on groupthink Authors' note: We wish to acknowledge and thank several scholars who made contributions, of various types, to this project: G.

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The determinants of congressional voting behavior on trade matters from 1991 to 1996 are investigated. Three personal characteristics of members of Congress-level of distrust toward others, perception of their control over their environment, and level of cognitive complexity-are examined for effect on voting patterns on proposals to lower barriers to international trade. These personality factors are included in a comprehensive model of congressional voting behavior. Results show that these variables had significant effects on specific trade votes, controlling for the impact of members' party, ideology, support for the presidency, and the nature of their district's workforce. These findings show that the personality attributes of legislators may have an important influence on their voting behavior, particularly on matters involving international cooperation.